If you’re a Democrat and have been following the polls, you might have a sore arm from repeatedly pinching yourself to ensure you’re not dreaming. Donald Trump’s approval ratings are so far under water that they are sinking Republicans’ chances. If Democrats’ dreams come true come this November, it will have long-term consequences for politics in the United States.

Unless the polling is very wrong, Democrats are on course to retake the House of Representatives. But they also appear to have a decent chance of capturing the Senate, which would have been nearly unthinkable this time last year. After some disastrous 2024 Senate results, Democrats need to flip at least four seats, requiring multiple wins in Republican states.

In a country with such a close partisan divide, it is very difficult to overcome a double-digit deficit. And yet polls favour Democrats to win not just one, but three states that Trump carried by more than 10 points in 2024: Alaska, Ohio and Texas. The race in another – Iowa – appears to be a toss-up. Other deeply red states are improbably in play. Republicans have had to pour money into defending a seat in Kansas, which last elected a Democratic senator in 1932. And in neighbouring Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn (who would vote with Democrats more often than not) is threatening to unseat a Republican incumbent.

In North Carolina, which Trump carried three times and which like Texas has a history of breaking Democrats’ hearts, popular........

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