If you look across the political waters of the Atlantic or the Irish Sea, you see much the same thing.

In both the US and the UK, leaders elected less than two years ago have seen their popularity plummet. And yet the consequences of this are playing out very differently. While Keir Starmer’s control of the UK Labour Party is slipping away, Donald Trump’s hold over the US Republican Party is tighter than ever. This difference is down to more than just the distinction between a parliamentary system and a presidential one. It’s about more than Starmer’s negligible political skills versus Trump’s magnetic charisma. What allows Trump to defy the laws of political gravity is the passionate, almost cult-like support of his base.

Trump’s approval ratings have dipped to a second-term low of 37 per cent. His disastrous decision to join Israel in a war against Iran has seriously damaged his standing. Only 30 per cent of Americans now think going to war was the right decision. And his popularity probably won’t rebound. The cost-of-living crisis created by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is only likely to get worse for the president who won re-election on a promise to control inflation. Neither of Trump’s bad options in the war with Iran – a humiliating admission of defeat or an escalation of military hostilities meaning a prolonged oil shock – has much prospect of improving his ratings. The obvious parallel is with George W Bush, who saw his approval ratings plummet from a remarkable 90 per cent after the 9/11 attacks to a low of 25 per cent at the end of his second term, largely due to another catastrophic American war in the Middle East.

Yet, unlike Bush, Trump shows little sign of losing his grip over........

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