The Government needed a break in advance of the budget on October 6th. It does not look like it’s getting one. International events have moved against it in recent days, and while Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris has talked about giving “certainty” to households, this is unfortunately impossible to do. Who knows what could happen over the next four weeks?

The risk for the Coalition is that the backdrop to budget day is a bubbling international energy crisis, upheaval in international markets and fears of rising inflation and interest rates.

The plan has been to park a lot of the pesky energy questions until after the budget and see how things look in November when the phasing back in of previous excise duties is due to start. What to do with carbon tax was always going to have to be dealt with on budget day. But delaying the call on excises would allow Harris to go ahead with the plan to cut income tax, without having to see some cash taken away from the €1.5 billion pot available for tax cuts to pay for a continuation of the energy reliefs well into 2027.

The extension of the excise reliefs during this year can be taken out of the 2026 budget – and so has no impact on next year’s figures. But pushing them well into 2027 would, of course, have a cost that needs to be accounted for in next year’s figures. A decision on this may still be delayed until after budget day, in the hope that “things” improve.

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