96 percent chance Democrats take House, 78 percent for Senate: Harvard model

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Midterm election day 2026 final preview

Midterm election day 2026 final preview

Recently updated election models from Harvard University forecast a strong chance of Democrats winning a majority of seats in the House and the Senate in the midterm elections.

The chances of Democrats taking the House is as good as 96 percent, the Harvard model forecasts. According to the model, the chances of Republicans winning the House, is “as likely as rolling a 20 on a twenty-sided die.”

“Our forecast expects the underdog to win with these odds........

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