IMF: Prolonged high gas prices could increase inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Thursday that rising energy prices caused by the ongoing conflict with Iran could lead to higher global inflation if prolonged, but it said no nation has yet reached out for emergency financial assistance.

IMF communications director Julie Kozack told reporters that the organization was closely monitoring how oil and gas disruptions impact commodity prices, inflation and global markets.

Escalating attacks in the Gulf, including on energy infrastructure, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude oil prices to as high as $119 per barrel in recent days.

Citing a general “rule of thumb,” Kozack explained that a 10 percent increase in oil prices, if sustained until the end of the year, could lead to a 40-basis-point increase in global inflation and a drop in output of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent.

She also touched on the reaction of global markets, noting that stock prices had fallen and bond yields were increasing across a “range of countries,” including the U.S., United Kingdom and Europe. The U.S. dollar has appreciated, while the currencies of several emerging economies have weakened, she said.

“The overall impact, of course, is going to depend very much on the duration and intensity of the conflict,” Kozack said.

Kozack signaled that the IMF expects growth to weaken in the six countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — but how much it weakens would largely depend on their ability to resume exports.

She said these countries had implemented “substantial policy buffers” to mitigate the potential impact of a long conflict.  

“They have undertaken recent reforms to strengthen policy frameworks, promote economic diversification, upgrade logistics, infrastructure, and all of this has helped enhance resilience of these countries,” Kozack said.

She also told reporters that the IMF has been in communication with finance ministers and central bank governors in member states to help them navigate any developments.

“Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing,” Kozack said. “But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us.”

The IMF is set to release an updated assessment of its global economic outlook in April.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

More International News

GOP debate on SAVE America Act morphs into ‘circular firing squad’

White House seeks to circumvent Schumer on potential DHS funding deal

Huckabee Sanders says she was asked to leave restaurant because employees felt ...

Trump’s takeover of DC landmarks reaches legal apex

GOP grapples with $200B Iran funding request from Trump, Hegseth

Mace hits Mullin over Paul spat, calls selection as DHS secretary ‘unreal’

Jim Jordan reverses long-held position on spy powers, says he will back Trump ...

GOP Senate candidate on rising gas prices: ‘Maybe you take one less trip to ...

Costco CEO gives update on future of $1.50 hot dog and soda combo

Trump ribs Japanese prime minister on Pearl Harbor in Oval Office talk on Iran

The Memo: Trump fumes as foreign leaders show new willingness to defy him

Live updates: Trump says he expects ‘Japan to step up’ on Hormuz; Hegseth ...

US F-35 makes emergency landing after flying over Iran

House Democrat says there’s a ‘legitimate problem’ with US-NATO ...

Judge skeptical over Trump ballroom project amid new bid to halt it 

Massie ad labels challenger 'Trump traitor'

Selective Service rules: Who would be exempt in event of a draft?

6 governor races shift to Democrats: Election handicapper

© The Hill