China could control the future of energy if America doesn’t act fast

The price of oil has been yo-yo-ing dramatically since the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran in early 2026 and Iran’s subsequent military control of the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than causing disparate groups to come together to recognize the importance of all forms of energy, this has resulted in some pushing harder for oil and gas and others pressing harder for solar, wind and batteries.  

This is a false dichotomy. Both are needed. 

A similar situation exists with China — conceptually the Strait of Beijing — which dominates the global refining of critical minerals and related supply chains needed to produce the world’s solar panels. It also manufactures a large share of lithium-ion batteries. The reality is that aggregate U.S. shale production is plateauing — and what follows this “transition” from oil and gas production growth matters.  

The shale revolution was one of the greatest technological achievements in American energy history. Through innovation in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, the U.S. reversed a decades long production decline and now leads the world in oil and gas production. Affordable shale oil and gas helped pull the U.S. out of the 2009 global recession, improved its geopolitical position, and even lowered carbon emissions as natural gas displaced coal in electricity generation.

But geology has the final word. Every shale basin matures and production eventually slows. To extend the life of shale will require bipartisan policy and regulatory reforms, not uninformed, political sound........

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