Iran war shifts into neutral as six-month mark arrives

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The Hill's Headlines (PM) - August 27, 2026

The Hill's Headlines (PM) - August 27, 2026

▪ Iran war approach shifts

▪ Trump gives Paxton a boost

▪ Warsh makes key Fed speech

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Today marks six months since the start of the war with Iran, which President Trump said would last for four to five weeks.

The conflict has settled into a tense but relatively quiet holding pattern, as the Trump administration pivots into an economic pressure campaign weeks ahead of midterm elections, assuring Americans that negotiations are playing out behind the scenes.

With few public details emerging about the “economic D-Day” that Trump pledged to unleash on Iran, the unpopular war has taken a back seat to other news — at least for the moment.

The Trump administration seems to be content with the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz, despite occasional attacks from Iran.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said Thursday an oil tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, but the crew was safe and no environmental damage was reported.

Gas prices, while still high, have largely stabilized at just above an average of $4 a gallon.

Oil is also passing through the strait — even though levels are well below what they were six months ago. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, last week’s ship traffic was up 50 percent from the week before.

The government has said 9 million barrels are passing through the strait each day — still shy of the roughly 15 million barrels that passed through before the war — while some analysts suggest the number is closer to 2 million to 6 million barrels each day, The Associated Press reported.

U.S. Central Command said Thursday that it had cleared all Iranian sea mines from the strait, freeing internationally recognized trade routes.

Trump, meanwhile, has shifted attention to a trade war with Canada, which carries its own political risks for Republicans, particularly in some key battleground states along the border.

After trade negotiations fell apart a week ago, a 50 percent tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports took effect. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by announcing “dollar for dollar” retaliatory tariffs, starting Sept. 8.

Trump on Thursday summoned reporters to the Oval Office for the signing an executive order changing Lake Ontario’s name to “Lake America” — a provocation that garnered blowback from many Democratic officials and Canadian leaders.

When a reporter asked Trump about the latest developments in the economic pressure campaign against Iran, the president said, “There’s not a lot to speak to,” and suggested the U.S. has the situation under control in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The strait is open. We’re taking a lot of boats. Millions and millions of barrels of oil are coming out of the strait every day. Other countries recognize that,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office yesterday, adding, “We’ve totally cleared the strait of mines.”

“But we’re watching,” the president said. “We see every inch of the strait, and any boat [that] goes in with a mine, we see it, and we take it out.”

Some analysts warn that the situation can change at any moment. The run-up to the midterms provides Iran a unique opportunity to leverage Americans’ reluctance to reengage in open conflict, making the moment especially precarious.

“While the conflict with Iran appears to have cooled somewhat over the past week, with the focus shifting toward economic sanctions, the situation remains highly volatile. Military action by either side could quickly change the trajectory of the conflict,” GOP strategist Ron Bonjean told Morning Report.

“As long as the war continues to keep gas prices elevated, it remains a political vulnerability for Republicans heading into the elections,” he continued. “Voters feel high prices at the pump immediately and that keeps the issue front and center.”

Republican strategist Bill O’Reilly similarly said what matters most is gas prices leading up to Election Day.

“The price of gas and oil in late October could be make or break in this election. Actions that ensure predictable oil flow will help Republicans,” O’Reilly said. “Events that continue the disruptions would pose additional challenges to the GOP.”

▪ The Hill: Canada excludes seafood from retaliatory tariffs.

▪ The Guardian: War rapidly draining U.S. Navy budget.

▪ Reuters: Iran war has reached its endgame — a costly stalemate.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

The back and forth between Trump and Carney isn’t slowing down. The president announced the renaming of Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” as he’s also threatening 50 percent auto tariffs starting next year. I spoke with Peter Navarro, the senior counselor to the president for........

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