The 10 races that will decide House control

The battle for the House majority will come down to a handful of battleground districts.

Republicans are playing defense as they seek to defend their 218-214 majority while facing tough political headwinds. All 435 House seats are up for grabs.

Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), The Hill’s election partner, rates 13 House contests as “toss ups.” As of Friday, Democrats have an 82 percent chance of flipping the House.

Here are 10 of those key contests that will decide who wins control of the lower chamber:

Ohio’s 7th District has long been held by the GOP, but scandal-plagued Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) has put that streak in jeopardy. 

Domestic abuse allegations against Miller from his ex-wife have rocked the race in northern Ohio. Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R), accused the House Republican of physical and emotional abuse, which Miller has denied.

He has faced calls to step aside from some Republicans — including Bernie Moreno.

Democrat Bryan Poindexter, a union iron worker and Brook Park City Council member, has run an aggressive campaign against Miller focused on economic issues and corruption, as well as his opponent’s abuse scandal.

Poindexter is narrowly favored to win and flip the seat for Democrats, DDHQ forecasts.

Rep. Ashley Hinson’s (R) open House seat in Iowa has become an unexpected battleground.

Favorable conditions for Democrats have made the seat, which Hinson won by more than 15 percentage points two years ago, increasingly competitive. DDHQ forecasts Democrat Lindsay James, a state lawmaker, the slight favorite to win the seat.

The Democrat has sought to tie her opponent, Joe Mitchell, to President Trump while also hammering the Republican over his residency. James has accused Mitchell of moving to the 2nd District to run for the open seat.

Mitchell, who is backed by the president, has campaigned on his opposition to special interests. He has called his opponent a radical leftist and criticized her over missing votes in the state Legislature. 

Texas’s 15th District

A Democratic Tejano singer-songwriter may unseat a sitting member of Congress in a district Trump won by 18 points in 2024. 

Bobby Pulido is challenging Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) for a seat she won by 14 points last cycle. The district, which runs through southern Texas, will serve as a key test of Latino voters’ appetite for Republicans this cycle. Trump made key gains with the bloc in 2024.

While GOP-led redistricting last year shifted the boundaries of De La Cruz’s district, she was seen as the favorite as the 2026 election cycle commenced. The........

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