Donalds dominates Florida GOP gubernatorial race: Poll

A new Emerson College survey has Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) well out in front in the GOP primary for Florida governor, and he is also the favorite in a hypothetical matchup with Democratic frontrunner David Jolly. 

The poll, released Thursday, found that 46.4 percent of 465 likely Republican primary voters backed Donalds. Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, entrepreneur James Fishback and former Speaker of the Florida House Paul Renner are well behind, garnering 4.1 percent, 3.8 percent and 2.7 percent support, respectively. 

A large portion of the GOP electorate, however, is undecided. With four months to go before the Aug. 18 primary, 39 percent of likely GOP voters are undecided. 

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College polling, noted in a release that Donalds also has support from 54 percent of GOP voters older than 60.

The conservative lawmaker, who has represented the Sunshine State’s 19th Congressional District for more than five years, has been the favorite in the race since he started his campaign last February and received an endorsement from President Trump days later. 

Casey DeSantis, the wife of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), was reportedly considering a campaign to succeed her husband last year, according to the Tallahassee, Fla., bureau of the Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times. But after a since-closed criminal investigation into her Hope Florida initiative, the first lady of Florida has not jumped into the race.

If she does, Donalds would remain the heavy favorite among Republican primary voters, with 43.5 percent support relative to 6.7 percent for DeSantis. 

Fishback, meanwhile, has made multiple racially-charged remarks towards Donalds since launching his candidacy in November. He called the 47-year-old congressman “AIPAC Shakur,” referring to his support for Israel, and said Donalds, whom he dubbed “By’rone” wants to “turn Florida into a Section 8 ghetto.”

The 31-year-old, running on a platform of making Florida more affordable for younger residents, was also previously accused of having a relationship with an underage girl, which caused a Florida school district to cut ties with him in 2022, according to NBC News. Fishback has denied criminal wrongoding. 

On the Democratic side, 20.7 percent of 362 likely primary voters backed Jolly, a former Republican congressman who only joined his current party last April. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings is in second place with 10.1 percent support, with a majority of respondents, 52.5 percent, undecided. 

In a hypothetical general election matchup between Donalds and Jolly, the Republican has support from 44.2 percent of respondents, while Jolly has support from 39 percent of respondents and 14.6 percent are undecided.

In a Donalds-Demings matchup, in which the winner would become the first Black governor in Florida history, 45.2 percent of respondents backed Donalds, 36.2 percent backed Demings and 16.8 percent were undecided. 

The surveys were conducted from March 29-31. The poll of likely GOP primary voters has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, while the general election surveys have a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

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