Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as oil prices rise 

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Fourteen days into the war with Iran, the world is watching two things at the same time: missiles in the Middle East and money moving through the global oil market.  

Today Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued his first message to the nation. And the message was unmistakable. Iran says it will keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked — one of the most important oil chokepoints in the world — and continue attacking U.S. bases in the region. In the statement attributed to him, the government said, “The lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must undoubtedly continue to be used.” It also vowed revenge for Iranian “martyrs,” referring to leaders and civilians killed since the U.S.–Israeli bombing campaign began.  

That narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. When it closes, the global economy feels it almost immediately. Oil prices surged back above $100 a barrel before dipping again, and Americans are already seeing the ripple effect at the pump. Just last month, the average gas price was about $2.94 a gallon nationally. Now it’s around $3.60, according to AAA.  

What’s striking is how the political messaging around that spike has shifted. President Trump built much of his economic argument around low energy prices. But now, as the conflict pushes oil higher, he’s framing it differently. In a Truth Social post yesterday he wrote: “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”  

But the reality is more complicated than that. Higher oil prices don’t just boost production revenue, they raise costs across the entire economy. Goldman Sachs warned this week that sustained price spikes could push inflation higher, slow economic growth and increase unemployment by the end of the year.  

And the economic story is only part of it. The human toll is mounting. The Pentagon says seven U.S. service members have been killed and about 140 American troops injured so far. Iran’s counterattacks have killed 14 people in Israel and six in the UAE. In Iran, more than 1,200 people have died the strikes, according to the Iranian Red Crescent, and the United Nations says as many as 3.2 million people have been displaced.  

One of the most disturbing developments involves a U.S. strike that reportedly hit an Iranian elementary school on the first day of the conflict. Preliminary findings suggest outdated intelligence may have misidentified the building as a military target. More than 170 people — mostly children — were killed.  

All of this is unfolding while the explanation for the war itself remains murky. We’ve heard shifting rationales, evolving objectives, and mixed messaging from Washington about what success actually looks like. The president told supporters this week at a Kentucky event, “we won,” while also few minutes later saying, “we’ve got to finish the job.”  

Fourteen days in, the world is left with a dangerous combination: rising oil prices, rising casualties, and still no clear answer about how this war ends or what victory even means.  

Lindsey Granger is a NewsNation contributor and co-host of The Hill’s commentary show “Rising.” This column is an edited transcription of her on-air commentary.   

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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