These 8 House races could decide the majority in the midterms

The fight for control of the House could be decided by just a handful of highly competitive seats in this fall’s midterms.  

Buoyed by off-year momentum and President Trump’s poor approval numbers, Democrats are aiming to net three seats to flip the lower chamber. And Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecasts Democrats are currently in a position to do just that, predicting a 226-209 majority in the House while Republicans retain power in a 50-50 Senate, with the vice president’s tiebreaker vote. 

DDHQ’s forecast puts a spotlight on just eight toss-up races that could be make or break for the majority in November. 

Here are the toss-ups to watch:

Florida’s 14th Congressional District

Republican-friendly redistricting in Florida could net the party up to four seats in November with new lines that dramatically reshaped several Democrat-held districts ahead of the midterms. 

In the district, Rep. Kathy Castor (D) is seeking to hold on in what’s now a battleground seat, though she won reelection by 15 points against a Republican challenger under the old lines in 2024 —outperforming even Vice President Harris in the presidential race.

More than a half-dozen Republicans are fighting in a GOP primary to take on Castor, who is unchallenged on the Democratic side. But some are raising the question of whether the redistricting could prove a “dummymander” in the district, after a new St. Pete Polls survey this week found Castor leading both top Republicans, former state Rep. Mike Beltran and state Rep. Kevin Steele, in a hypothetical showdown. 

Ahead of the Sunshine State’s Aug. 18 primary, DDHQ gives Democrats a 56 percent chance of winning the seat this fall.

Florida’s 25th Congressional District

This district in Broward County 25th was dismantled by redistricting, prompting incumbent Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) to run for reelection in the deep-blue 20th Congressional District being vacated by Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D). 

Now, Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) is running in the reconfigured 25th Congressional District against a primary challenge from Oliver Larkin, a candidate backed by Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) hoping to replicate progressive wins across the country. 

But some Democrats fear that, if Larkin were to advance from the August primary, his DSA approach could make it more difficult for Democrats to hold........

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