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The dangers of Trump’s National Defense Strategy

Last month, the Defense Department published its long-awaited National Defense Strategy, a practical guide published every four years to implement its broader National Security Strategy. This pair of documents from the Trump administration deliberately sets out to chart a new path, distinct from the more conventional approaches laid out by previous administrations.

President Trump’s National Defense Strategy and National Security Strategy distinguish themselves rhetorically by adopting a tone that is more muscular, yet is much more restrained in its involvement in international affairs. Two fundamental questions arise from the policy models Trump is presenting before the world: How different are they from the way earlier administrations addressed national security concerns, and do they improve or retard the pursuit of America’s long-range national interests?  

The Defense Strategy notes, “President Trump took office in January 2025 to one of the most dangerous security environments in our nation’s history. … Meanwhile in Europe, where Trump had previously led [NATO] allies to begin taking their defenses seriously, the last administration effectively encouraged them to free-ride, leaving the Alliance unable to deter or respond effectively to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”  

This statement implies that Trump views Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as an important matter of national concern. Yet, while he frequently claimed during his campaign that he would end the war in 24 hours, he has spent much of the first year of his return to office striving to reconcile the irreconcilable positions of Moscow and Kiev. Shockingly to students of American history and tradition, he has openly sided with Russia’s position demanding major concessions of Ukrainian territory and sovereignty.  

At the same time, to his credit, Trump has succeeded in narrowing the gap in contributions to the defense of Ukraine by the U.S. and the rest of NATO; he has pressed the Europeans to increase their defense spending and to purchase U.S. weapons for transfer to Ukraine. But, to Vladimir Putin’s relief and Volodymyr Zelinsky’s frustration, he has withheld the uniquely American long-range weapons Ukraine needs to strike critical strategic targets deep inside Russia. He also opposes facilitating the transfer of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s wartime use and postwar reconstruction.  

The National Defense Strategy also faults Trump’s predecessor for having “allowed, even enabled, our cunning adversaries to grow more powerful, even as they … increased risk of America itself being drawn into simultaneous major wars across theaters—a third world war, as President Trump himself warned.” But despite that concern, Trump seems not to include Russia among the traditional quartet of “cunning adversaries,” along with China, Iran and North Korea, bent on drawing the U.S. into a two-front or three-front war.

History’s lessons teach that such a drastic scenario is far more likely with an appeased but still unsatisfied Russia moving from a partially defeated and weakened Ukraine to the Baltics or Poland. It is not peace through strength.

The most likely co-conspirator for Russia in its potential multi-front conflict with the U.S. is China, Russia’s declared “no limits strategic partner” since at least February 2022, when their burgeoning collaboration launched the second major Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

The Defense Strategy noted that in recent years, “China and its military grew more powerful in the Indo-Pacific region, the world’s largest and most dynamic market area, with significant implications for Americans’ own security, freedom, and prosperity.” The document stated U.S. purpose clearly: “To prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or our allies … we will erect a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain.” The critical linchpin in that chain is Taiwan.

The Defense Strategy claims, “The president’s approach is one of a flexible, practical realism that looks at the world in a clear-eyed way.” But that self-praise ignores how Beijing views the lack of U.S will in Ukraine to defend a strategic and democratic partner against a relentless aggressor that offers economic advantages and personal leadership blandishments. It is doubtless manipulating geopolitical circumstances to discourage or strategically delay U.S. intervention in a Taiwan contingency.   

The National Defense Strategy argues that U.S. deterrence against China, such as it is, is not intended to “strangle” China, and is therefore innocuous in U.S.-China relations. But the fundamental question is, what does the U.S. do if China’s intention is to strangle Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan and the U.S. itself?  

History will brand the U.S. failure to ensure Ukraine’s victory and prevent Taiwan’s fall as the time when America fell from greatness and her “cunning” but miscalculating enemies plunged the world into a new global conflict.

Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and member of the advisory board of the Vandenberg Coalition.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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