In Iran, Trump faces an Abilene paradox

President Trump’s Mideast envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are headed straight into an Abilene Paradox, with Pakistan in the driver’s seat. The paradox, whose name was coined by Jerry Harvey in 1974, describes a group of people committing to a course of action that no one in the group actually wants.

Now, the same sort of flawed groupthink dynamic risks derailing Trump’s strategic goals and redlines in Iran.

Trump is at fault, too. On Tuesday, he reinforced that perception when he posted on Truth Social that he was pausing Project Freedom “for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.”

Yet less than 24 hours later, Trump was back again, threatening Iran: “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.”

Trump’s erratic approach to Iran is not having its desired effect –– reaching a deal wherein Iran gives up its enriched uranium program and pursuit of a nuclear weapon in exchange for the U.S. reopening the Strait of Hormuz to its shipping.

The White House appears more intent on the pursuit of a deal than it does on winning the war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made that clear yesterday –– at least from the Trump administration’s perspective –– saying, “The operation is over –– Epic Fury. We are done with that stage of it.”

Iran views this as an opening and is playing for time. They believe Trump does not have time, given the 60-day deadline in the War Powers Resolution, the November midterm elections, and the fragility of the global........

© The Hill