Europe is in Trump’s crosshairs

President Trump tells us that he is considering pulling the United States out of the NATO alliance. He is threatening simply to walk away from the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the world to deal with a choke-point problem he created.

He should be mindful of the proverb: “Two wrongs don’t make a right.”

Our impulsive president has now taken to firing off emotional responses on Truth Social and rubbishing our allies in statements given aboard Air Force One. And his bull-in-a-china-shop approach to diplomacy is wearing thin. NATO partners are now pushing back, and Moscow loves it.

TASS — the Russian News Agency — enthusiastically ran with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s comments to Fox News yesterday, that “We’re going to have to re-examine the value of NATO and that alliance for our country.”

He went on: “We are going to have to re-examine whether or not this alliance, that has served this country well for a while, is still serving that purpose, or has it become a one-way street where America is simply in a position to defend Europe, but when we need the help of our allies they’re going to deny us basing rights, and they’re going to deny us overflight.”

If so, then Russian President Vladimir Putin is closer to achieving his ultimate objective. As Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, has put it, “Putin wants to destroy our alliance, not by attacking it but by splintering it.”

Ironically, the U.S attack on Iran — a key Russian ally that has helped Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — has only further divided Washington from Brussels. Putin, consequently, is maneuvering to put NATO in check and Team Trump is at risk of letting him.

Alarmingly, in a recent interview with The Telegraph, Trump told Connor Stringer, “I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.” Trump is angered that Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom have taken measures to deny the U.S. the ability to conduct operations from military bases in their countries.

Perhaps most significantly, at the onset of Operation Epic Fury, the British government denied the U.S. authorization to use U.K. military bases to launch airstrikes — specifically its air force bases in Fairford and on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.

In mid-March, German spokesperson Stefan Kornelius told reporters that “The [German] government will not participate in this war … nor would it participate in a military operation to enable ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz.” He added that the war had nothing to do with NATO — and that it was not NATO’s war.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius later echoed that sentiment. “It is not our war,” he said. “We did not start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end, but additional warships in the region will likely not contribute to that.”

Then on Monday the Spanish government closed its airspace to American planes involved in attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Italy followed suit the next day, when Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told Washington that military aircraft could not transit through Sigonella air base on the way to the Middle East.

France’s denial of airspace proved to be the tipping point. Trump lashed out at French President Emmanuel Macron in a Truth Social post writing, “The Country of France wouldn’t let planes headed to Israel, loaded up with military supplies, fly over French territory. France has been VERY UNHELPFUL with respect to the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ who has been successfully eliminated! The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!”

Cooler heads need to prevail here. 

Yes, Trump has a complete lack of self-awareness when it comes to how deeply offended many European leaders are regarding his brinkmanship over Greenland and his refusal to hold Russia fully accountable for its illegal war against Ukraine.

That said, Europe is guilty as charged when it comes to letting the U.S. and others do its heavy lifting for it in military conflicts. The Europeans are all too often willing to arrive right after the fight but not during it. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz admitted as much last June when he acknowledged the “dirty work Israel is doing for all of us.”

If Europe is unwilling or unable to help in Iran, then as a sign of good faith it could –– and should –– do more in Ukraine. For instance, it should immediately implement a European-led no-fly zone over Western Ukraine, to stop Putin from targeting Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure going forward.

Especially since the timing is opportune. Russia is vulnerable. Rising global oil prices as a result of the war in Iran have not been the economic boon to Russia that many expected. Why? Because Ukraine has destroyed or disrupted 40 percent or more of Putin’s oil export facilities. Putin cannot profit from what he cannot get to market.

Europe is in Trump’s crosshairs, but it is also at a crossroads. It can petulantly pick a petty fight with Trump, or it can boldly take the fight to Putin.

 Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the US European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack. 

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