What’s next for Israel as elections leave no clear winner

▪ Uncertainty prevails in Israel elections

▪ Fed’s final rate decision before midterms

▪ CDC deputy director stepping down

▪ Bolsonaro flees Brazil for U.S.

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As returns are steadily being reported in Israel’s critical parliamentary elections, one thing is becoming clear: there’s uncertainty ahead.

The coalition of parties led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears on track to finish ahead as of the latest results, currently projected to win 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, according to The Times of Israel.

But Netanyahu’s far-right bloc is still expected to fall short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, providing an opening for the opposition led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot.

A retired general who lost both his son and nephew fighting in Gaza against Hamas, Eisenkot is seen as the main alternative for prime minister. His bloc is projected to finish closely behind Netanyahu’s coalition, with 49 seats, as of the latest vote count.

The kingmaker in what comes next may be the two Arab parties — the Joint List and Ra’am — that outperformed expectations and are on track for their best performance ever in Israel’s elections. The parties are currently projected to win as many as 18 or 19 seats, enough to provide or deny a governing coalition.

Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen told local media that any party seeking to replace Netanyahu’s government will have to engage with his faction. He said he was ready to work to ensure Netanyahu is ousted.

“It is either continued racism, continued exclusion and continued supremacy, or genuine Jewish-Arab partnership,” Jabareen said.

Leading up to the election, Eisenkot dismissed a potential coalition with the Arab parties, but it may be his only path to power.

Voter participation was particularly high, with turnout topping 77 percent, easily surpassing the 70 percent of voters who cast ballots during Israel’s last election in 2022.

Exit polls initially indicated Eisenkot’s bloc would finish slightly ahead of Netanyahu’s, but it’s slipped as votes are counted.

The election has been largely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister who built his political brand around being the country’s best defender against its many adversaries. That reputation took a hit following the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, the deadliest incident in Israel’s history.

Netanyahu’s critics have denounced him for failing to stop the attack and point to reports that he was warned in advance but didn’t take action.

One of Eisenkot’s key campaign promises has been to launch an official investigation into what happened surrounding the Oct. 7 attack, which Netanyahu hasn’t allowed. Another key difference between the candidates is the ultra-Orthodox’s exclusion from military and national service, which Eisenkot has pushed to end.

Netanyahu and Eisenkot don’t differ significantly on the issue of the offensives against Hamas and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both are also hawkish on Iran. The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports that Israel’s foreign policy is likely to remain stable regardless of who comes out on top.

Once all the votes are tallied, the responsibility will fall to Israeli President Isaac Herzog to choose the party he views as having the best chance at forming a government through coalition negotiations. Even though Netanyahu’s party is on track to be the largest in the Knesset, Herzog doesn’t have to choose Likud.

The party leader chosen will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If those negotiations fail, Herzog can turn to another party leader with the same 28-day timeline.

The final formation of Israel’s government could take weeks. And if no party is able to form a governing coalition, another election could be on Israel’s horizon.

“Change” was a common refrain among voters who spoke to Kelly, who is reporting from Israel this week. She has a breakdown here on the situation with the election too close to call.

▪ The Jerusalem Post: Party leader urges opposition to unite with Arab parties.

▪ The New York Times: Herzog faces a difficult choice.

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