Marshall faces final debate in fight for political life

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Sen. Roger Marshall (Kan.) faces his second and final debate against Democrat Adam Hamilton as the first-term Republican fights for his political life in a razor-tight race.  

The race has the potential to be biggest surprise of the entire midterm cycle, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s. Polling has shown the race to be essentially dead even, as Hamilton leads in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average by 0.4 points. 

Tonight’s debate, hosted by Nexstar Media Group affiliate WDAF, will air at 7 p.m. CDT and run for one hour. Nexstar also owns The Hill. 

Marshall started out the race as the heavy favorite, with DDHQ giving him as high as a 90 percent chance of winning this summer, but that now sits at just 65 percent, making him one of the most vulnerable Senate Republican incumbents this cycle. 

Democrats have found some recent success in the state’s gubernatorial races behind popular moderate Gov. Laura Kelly (D). But a Democrat hasn’t won another statewide office in Kansas in decades, and Republicans have mostly dominated the U.S. House delegation for more than a century. 

Hamilton, a prominent pastor who has leaned into his Kansas roots, is trying to change their fortunes. 

He’s sought to tie Marshall to President Trump as the president’s approval rating has dipped. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted last month found Trump’s approval rating in the state stood at 40 percent, while 53 percent of respondents said they disapproved of his job performance. 

Hamilton has torn into Marshall over the Iran war and his refusal to support war powers resolutions in the Senate to limit Trump’s authority. He’s also seized on a New York Times report that Marshall had sued more than 700 patients for unpaid medical bills, including 81 who were arrested, during his time working as an obstetrician-gynecologist. 

A spokesperson for Marshall told the Times that he spent decades caring for patients regardless of their ability to pay and that judges issue arrest warrants for missed court dates, not doctors. 

But that hasn’t stopped Hamilton from seizing on the report, releasing an ad featuring one woman who was arrested. 

Viewers can expect more of these attacks from Hamilton tonight. 

There have been several internal and external signs that Republicans have reason for concern. 

Election handicappers Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both shifted their ratings of the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” this month. 

The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that works to elect Republicans to the Senate, is investing $14 million to boost Marshall after having pulled out of North Carolina, a seat that Democrats seem likely to flip. 

Trump made a stop in Kansas to campaign for Marshall on Monday, announcing an $8 billion program to provide relief to farmers dealing with high diesel costs. He credited Marshall with pushing for the program and went after Hamilton, accusing him of “pretending to be a moderate.” 

Hamilton has said he would be independent-minded and willing to break with his own party if elected. 

Marshall has tried to label Hamilton as “woke,” pointing to sermons he’s given on issues like gender and sexuality and climate change. 

But even Marshall has sought to distance himself from Trump on a few issues, pushing back last month when the president floated banning sales of the Canadian private jet maker Bombardier in the U.S. The company has a large workforce in Kansas. He also called on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to work more closely with local police departments during a sudden sweep the agency conducted in the state. 

How closely Marshall hugs Trump’s positions or shows willingness to break with him........

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