The ‘special relationship’ may not be so special anymore

The “special relationship” between the U.S. and the United Kingdom — so named by no less than Sir Winston Churchill himself — may not be special anymore. 

I attended last week’s fourth London Defence Conference, called by some the new Munich Security Conference by the Thames. Among the 800 participants were many of the most senior foreign, defense and security officials from the U.K., Europe and Japan.

“Readiness” was the conference’s subject, with the question “Ready for what?” as its sub-theme. The answer: Ready for the recrudescent Russian military threat; ready for Vladimir Putin’s appetite for further aggression against the West after the war in Ukraine is finally resolved — presumably in Moscow’s favor.

About 58,000 U.S. service personnel died in Vietnam. I pointed out that, after the Vietnam War and the withdrawal of U.S. military forces beginning in 1973, it took the U.S. 17 years to recover from that and finally impose a crushing defeat on Saddam Hussein’s army in the Kuwaiti desert in 1991. Could Russia recover as quickly as the U.S. did, when it has suffered over a million casualties, of which a significant number were killed, and much of its equipment was disabled in combat?

Also, why would Putin risk a war with NATO when, in every category except tactical nuclear weapons, the alliance has overwhelming numerical advantages? Three of NATO’s members — the U.S., the U.K. and France — are also nuclear armed.

Overshadowing the conference were the war in Iran and President Trump’s many threats to coerce NATO to spend more on defense — an idea welcomed by participants — and his less popular threats to withdraw from NATO, acquire Greenland and make Canada the 51st state. Only a handful of Americans attended the conference and the only U.S. representative of the administration was a Commerce Department assistant secretary, who spoke favorably of the “special relationship.” But the strong consensus of participants was great concern over the future.

Yes, the “special relationship” was still special on the military-to-military and intelligence levels, but that could not be said of the White House.

Asked whether the world is more dangerous today than it was after 9/11, the overall answer was an emphatic yes. Russia, with its transactional alliance with China, North Korea and Iran to upset the world’s rules-based order, is a clear and apparent danger. Despite America’s overwhelming military power eviscerating Iran’s localized air force, navy and missiles, strategic control of the Strait Hormuz — the most vital choke point on the globe — was carrying the day.

As I have previously argued, Iran could win just by not losing. With about 20 percent of the world’s total energy supply cut off — along with larger percentages of phosphates needed for fertilizer and agriculture and helium in chip manufacture — Iran held the strategic high ground. And unlike all the other global choke points that could be circumvented by using alternative routes, the Strait of Hormuz is the Persian Gulf’s sole access point.

One of the highlights of the conference was that it brought together all the chiefs of defense of the 10 states composing the Joint Expeditionary Force, which was created in 2012 by former U.K. chief of Defense Field Marshal Lord David Richards. The Joint Expeditionary Force now includes both the Baltic and high north countries, which cooperate in planning and participate in joint operations independent of NATO but with a strong working relationship. Relatively few Americans are familiar with this force and the important role it plays as an adjunct to European security and a coalition of the willing.

A second interesting aspect was the presence of a first-term member of the U.S. House of Representatives, Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.). Because of the government shutdown, Harrigan and his wife paid for their transportation to the conference. 

A West Point graduate and former Special Forces officer who served in Afghanistan, Harrigan’s vitality, enthusiasm and grasp of key issues reversed some of the participants’ negative attitudes towards Congress and its members. But in that regard, there is still a long way to go in changing perceptions of our legislative branch.

Harlan Ullman, Ph.D., is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, a senior adviser at the Atlantic Council, the chairman of two private companies and the principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. He and former United Kingdom Defense Chief Lord David Richards are the authors of a forthcoming book on preventing strategic catastrophe.

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