The US must not misread a desperate, cornered Iran

For years, Washington has tended to view Iran as a patient strategic rival, a regime steadily extending its influence across the Middle East through terrorist proxies, asymmetric pressure, and ideological resolve. But that familiar frame may now be obscuring a more dangerous reality: Iran’s conduct increasingly reflects desperation, not confidence.

That distinction matters. Governments under sustained internal and external pressure often become more coercive, less predictable, and more willing to take risks. If Washington continues to read Iran as a stable revisionist power rather than an insecure regime increasingly focused on survival, it may misjudge the threat in ways that carry real consequences.

Recent Iranian behavior across the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon and beyond points to a leadership preoccupied with preserving control at home and deterring pressure abroad. Tehran still presents itself as a revolutionary power capable of shaping the region, but many of its choices today resemble actions of a state trying to manage vulnerability, not project strength.

One place this is especially visible is the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Persian Gulf. Iranian officials frequently cast pressure on maritime traffic in the language of security, regulation, or economic necessity. Yet the practical effect is familiar: coercion through instability. Tehran creates risk, then seeks to present itself as one of the few actors able to contain it. Without formally declaring war or imposing an official blockade, the regime relies on intimidation, legal ambiguity, and psychological pressure to increase the costs of confrontation for governments and global markets alike.

Iran also avoids direct conventional confrontation with the U.S. whenever possible. Instead, it relies on calibrated........

© The Hill