What to know about Tuesday’s redistricting referendum in Virginia

Democrats in Virginia are eyeing one last opportunity to pass new congressional lines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections as the national redistricting war nears its end.

Virginia Democrats teed up a Tuesday referendum asking voters if lawmakers can temporarily pass a Democratic-favored 10-1 House map before the 2030 Census. Democrats in the Old Dominion currently hold a 6-5 edge in the House.

Republicans in Florida, meanwhile, will carefully watch these results as the state Legislature convenes for a special session next week to redraw its congressional lines — the GOP’s last shot to redistrict before November.

Here’s what to know about Tuesday’s redistricting referendum in Virginia: 

Polls suggest Democrats have the edge

Recent polling indicates the referendum is likely to pass, albeit narrowly. A poll from State Navigate released last week showed the ballot measure passing 51 percent to 45 percent with undecided voters factored in. Four percent of respondents were unsure on their vote.

A Washington Post-Schar School poll, released earlier this month and conducted in late March, found 52 percent of likely voters would approve the ballot measure, compared to 47 percent of those who said they were against it. 

Figures from L2 Data firm also suggest Democrats may have an edge in early and absentee voting; as of Thursday, 55 percent of people who voted are Democrats, compared to 40 percent who are Republicans and 5 percent who are nonpartisan.

Republicans, however, are likely to fill the gap on election day.  

Some of the polling has also suggested the referendum, and gerrymandering at large, is a complicated issue for voters.  

For example, in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, many respondents characterized the redistricting push as unfair when they were told the proposed map would create 10 districts where Democrats are favored to win.

Forty-eight percent said it would be unfair political representation, while 44 percent described the proposal as fair. Nine percent of respondents had no opinion or skipped the question.

Confusion mires the referendum

The sheer amount of influence from outside groups in support of and in opposition to the redistricting effort has confused voters as they head to the polls.

Advertising and mailers from campaigns and groups opposing the referendum have sought to portray Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) and former President Obama as against redistricting despite both leaders encouraging Virginians to vote “yes” on the measure. Obama has been featured heavily in TV ads urging voters to back the new maps.

An ad released by Virginians for Fair Maps, the leading group opposed to new maps, begins using a clip of a 2017 speech made by the former president where he states, “Because of things like political gerrymandering, our parties have moved further and further apart and it’s harder and harder to find common ground.”  

Another anti-redistricting group, Justice for Democracy sent out mailers using Ku Klux Klan imagery and Civil Rights Movement photos, targeting Black voters earlier this year, according to The Washington Post. The ads used phrasing such as, “Just like Jim Crow, they want to silence your voice,” in an effort to convince Black Virginians to vote “no” on the ballot measure.

The group responsible for the mailers is funded largely by Per Aspera Policy Inc., which has received funding in the past from Republican mega-donor Peter Thiel. 

The similar names of the main redistricting campaigns also added another layer of confusion this spring. The pro-redistricting group is called Virginians for Fair Elections while the group against the push is named Virginians for Fair Maps. 

Dark money looms large

Dark money groups are largely funding both sides of the redistricting battle in Virginia. These groups, whose funders are virtually untraceable, are registered as 501(c)(4) groups and are allowed to spend unlimited sums of money without disclosing their backers.

Some of the top dark money groups supporting the referendum include House Majority Forward, which has given about $38 million to the effort, and the Fairness Project, which has contributed more than $10 million.

All told, Virginians for Fair Elections has raised close to $65 million, according to the latest state campaign filings available on Monday morning.  

Meanwhile, Virginians for Fair Maps RC has raised tens of millions of dollars, primarily from a group that happens to have the same name: Virginians for Fair Maps. That dark money group has raised close to $23 million.  

Per Aspera Policy Incorporated has also given nearly $9 million to Justice for Democracy, which is against the redistricting effort.

If Virginia voters approve the Democratic-backed ballot measure on Tuesday, it will increase pressure on Florida Republicans, who are seeking to change their congressional map next week.

Florida lawmakers were originally scheduled to meet Monday for their special session, but Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) delayed the state Legislature’s meeting until the last week of April.

Republicans still face some big hurdles in the Sunshine State, however.

Florida Democrats are all but expected to sue over the new maps, and the state Constitution has clear anti-gerrymandering language, meaning lawmakers can’t explicitly redraw the House map for partisan gain.  

Democrats in the state have also overperformed in recent races, even flipping two GOP seats in the state Legislature. This has raised concerns within Republican circles that changing the maps could ultimately backfire on the party.

More than half of voters in Florida have also called the redistricting push a “bad idea,” according to polling from earlier this month.

Republicans initially predicted that new maps could give the party up to five more seats in Florida’s congressional delegation, where the GOP holds a 20-8 edge. Now, the party thinks a seat or two may be more likely if they successfully redistrict at the end of the month.

Virginia maps could still get nixed

The Old Dominion’s Supreme Court could still strike down a new set of congressional lines if voters pass the redistricting ballot measure on Tuesday. 

The high court has allowed the Democrats’ referendum to proceed as planned as it weighs the merits of litigation brought by Republicans against the push. The GOP has argued that Democrats improperly convened a special session on redistricting and flouted timing guidance on when the referendum should have taken place.

If the measure fails, the lawsuit is likely moot.

Democrats say they don’t expect the high court to strike down Tuesday’s results if voters approve of the new maps. Some Republicans, however, say they believe the court will weigh in regardless of Tuesday’s outcome.

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