What to know about Tuesday’s redistricting referendum in Virginia

Democrats in Virginia are eyeing one last opportunity to pass new congressional lines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections as the national redistricting war nears its end.

Virginia Democrats teed up a Tuesday referendum asking voters if lawmakers can temporarily pass a Democratic-favored 10-1 House map before the 2030 Census. Democrats in the Old Dominion currently hold a 6-5 edge in the House.

Republicans in Florida, meanwhile, will carefully watch these results as the state Legislature convenes for a special session next week to redraw its congressional lines — the GOP’s last shot to redistrict before November.

Here’s what to know about Tuesday’s redistricting referendum in Virginia: 

Polls suggest Democrats have the edge

Recent polling indicates the referendum is likely to pass, albeit narrowly. A poll from State Navigate released last week showed the ballot measure passing 51 percent to 45 percent with undecided voters factored in. Four percent of respondents were unsure on their vote.

A Washington Post-Schar School poll, released earlier this month and conducted in late March, found 52 percent of likely voters would approve the ballot measure, compared to 47 percent of those who said they were against it. 

Figures from L2 Data firm also suggest Democrats may have an edge in early and absentee voting; as of Thursday, 55 percent of people who voted are Democrats, compared to 40 percent who are Republicans and 5 percent who are nonpartisan.

Republicans, however, are likely to fill the gap on election day.  

Some of the polling has also suggested the referendum, and gerrymandering at large, is a complicated issue for voters.  

For example, in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, many respondents characterized the redistricting push as unfair when they were told the proposed map would create 10 districts where Democrats are favored to win.

Forty-eight percent said it would be unfair political representation, while 44 percent described the........

© The Hill