Platner holds commanding lead over Mills in Maine Senate race: Poll

Progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner holds a commanding double-digit lead over Gov. Janet Mills (D) in the Democratic primary to take on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), according to a new poll. 

An Emerson College Polling survey released on Thursday showed Platner leading Mills by about 27 points in the Senate Democratic contest, with Platner receiving 55 percent support while the Maine governor received 28 percent. A separate 17 percent said “someone else” or were undecided.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Platner enjoys an edge among both men and women voters over the Maine governor. 

“Graham Platner has a significant lead over Governor Mills, which is outside the poll’s margin of error,” Kimball said in a release. “Male voters support Platner by a 41-point margin, 63% to 22%, while women support Platner by an 18-point margin, 50% to 32%.” 

The poll also found that Platner held a slightly larger lead over Collins when Emerson College Polling gamed out two hypothetical matchups between the Democratic candidates and the GOP senator. 

In a hypothetical matchup between Platner and Collins, the progressive oyster farmer had a 7-point lead over the Maine Republican.  

Platner received 48 percent while Collins received 41 percent, and a separate 12 percent said “someone else” or were unsure. 

Meanwhile, in a hypothetical matchup between Mills and Collins, the Democratic lead narrows with the Maine governor receiving 46 percent while the GOP senator receives close to 43 percent. A separate 11 percent said “someone else” or were unsure. 

“Collins has a net 30-point unfavorable rating among independent voters (62% to 32%), and Mills has a net 13-point unfavorable rating among this group (52% to 39%), whereas Platner has a six-point net favorable rating among independents, 41% to 35%,” Kimball noted. 

The polls offer the latest data point that Platner is seen as the favorite in the Democratic contest to take on Collins this fall. A polling average of Maine Senate Democratic surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ before the release of the Emerson College Polling survey showed the economic populist oyster farmer at 48 percent, while Mills sat at 36 percent. 

The survey, conducted between March 21 and March 23, was taken after Mills’s campaign dropped its first negative ad of the cycle, hitting Platner for past comments he made on Reddit over a decade ago downplaying sexual assault. The campaign hit him again in a more recent ad over a similar issue. 

Platner has received scrutiny for a number of controversial, since-deleted posts criticizing law enforcement, suggesting Black people don’t tip well and downplaying sexual assault. The oyster farmer has distanced himself from those comments, saying he made them during a difficult period in his life after serving in the military in Afghanistan and Iraq and that they don’t reflect him today. 

However, Platner has also gone up with his own ads responding to the Mills campaign advertising, showing that the economic populist can’t leave those attacks unignored. 

Despite Platner’s controversies, revelations of which were first reported last fall, Platner has continued to lead the Maine governor as the primary, becoming a proxy for generational change and the Democratic Party’s direction. 

The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted between March 21 and March 23, polling 1,075 likely Maine voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 points. There were 530 likely Democratic primary voters in Maine surveyed, with a margin of error of 4.2 points. 

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