5 things to watch for in Illinois’s primary elections

The Prairie State is holding a series of primary elections Tuesday that will reshape the Illinois congressional delegation, with voters weighing in on the contest to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and five Democrats leaving the House.

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), backed by Gov. JB Pritzker (D), is duking it out with Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) to succeed the No. 2 Senate Democrat in a contest that has turned increasingly nasty amid record spending.

Meanwhile, a handful of elections to fill the seats of retiring House Democrats — Kelly, Krishnamoorthi and Reps. Jan Schakowsky, Jesús “Chuy” García and Danny Davis — will serve as a test of voters’ attitudes about the direction of the party, as well as the influence of outside spending looking to skew the contests.

Here are five things to watch for in Illinois’s primaries: 

Does Pritzker’s big bet pay off in Senate race?

Pritzker, a possible 2028 contender, is betting big in the state’s Senate Democratic primary with his support for Stratton. The billionaire, who is running for a third term as governor this year, has given at least $5 million to an outside group called Illinois Future PAC that is backing her bid.

Still, Krishnamoorthi has maintained a clear financial edge in the race. A preprimary report filed to the Federal Election Commission shows the congressman raising more than $30 million as of Feb. 25, including close to $20 million in transfers from his House committee, during his bid for the upper chamber. He’s spent close to $24 million overall this cycle.  

Meanwhile, a preprimary filing from Stratton’s campaign showed her raising $4 million as of Feb. 25, spending close to $2.8 million. During that same time period, Kelly raised $3.3 million, a majority of which came from House transfers, and spent close to $2.6 million overall.  

A polling average of Illinois Senate Democratic surveys compiled by Decision Desk HQ shows Krishnamoorthi leading the pack at 34 percent, with Stratton at 30 percent and Kelly at 14 percent ahead of Tuesday’s election.

Pritzker’s involvement has raised questions around whether it’s enough to help boost Stratton in the primary — and how it might impact his political future if she loses. 

Do former lawmakers pull off their comeback bids? 

Former Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) and Melissa Bean (D-Ill.) are eyeing comeback bids for their seats in the 2nd and 8th congressional districts, respectively. Their campaigns represent a notable divergence as many in the delegation head for the exits or seek higher office this election cycle.

Jackson, who served from 1995-2012, and Bean, who served from 2005-11, are betting that voters will reward their legislative track records over newer, fresher faces vying for the seats in Congress. 

“We have launched our campaign in large measure as ‘second chances and redemption for all,’” Jackson told The Hill in a recent interview. “My constituents have heard that message. We’ve discussed it for more than nine months.” 

Toward the end of his term, Jackson grappled with bipolar disorder and was mired in a campaign finance probe that sent him to prison. 

Meanwhile, Bean narrowly lost her reelection in 2010 to former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) amid the Tea Party wave. Walsh no longer identifies as a Republican.

“What I’m hearing is people are looking for the experience that I do bring to the table, and that’s one of delivering results,” Bean told The Hill. 

Yet, younger and progressive challengers see the open seats as an opportunity for new leaders as the party grapples with a broader debate over generational change.  

How much does outside spending tip the scales? 

Tuesday’s primaries also will test the power of special interest and dark-money groups. So far this cycle, tens of millions of dollars have poured into congressional races across the Prairie State.  

In the Senate Democratic primary, more than $50 million has been spent on TV ads alone — including $28.3 million from Krishnamoorthi’s campaign, $1.2 million from Kelly’s campaign and $1 million from Stratton’s campaign.  

But Fairshake, a pro-crypto super PAC, has spent close to $10 million targeting Stratton,  while Illinois Future PAC, backed by Pritzker, has spent $12 million to boost Stratton and oppose Krishnamoorthi. 

Congressional races in Illinois have also seen a flood of money rolling in. NBC Chicago reported that super PACs spent more than $31 million in four Chicago-area races, pushing issues related to AI, cryptocurrency and support for Israel. 

Think Big, the Democratic arm of the pro-AI Leading the Future, spent $1.4 million backing Jackson in the 2nd Congressional District race and $1.1 million backing Bean in the 8th Congressional District race. 

Meanwhile, Elect Chicago Women, which reportedly has ties to pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, spent $3.9 million backing Bean and $5.8 million in the 9th Congressional District to back state Sen. Laura Fine and oppose Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss in the race to replace Schakowsky.

Does Illinois elect the country’s first female Gen Z lawmaker? 

Kat Abughazaleh, a 26-year-old progressive journalist, would likely become the first Generation Z woman elected to Congress if she comes out on top Tuesday. Whoever wins the primary race is all but certain to win the November general election.  

Abughazaleh, who is Palestinian American, joins a wave of other young candidates looking to usher in change on Capitol Hill ahead of the 2026 midterms. There is just one Gen Z lawmaker in office: Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.).

Abughazaleh has garnered attention online over viral moments and has boasted that her campaign office doubles as a mutual aid hub, distributing basics such as toiletries, clothes and food in the district. She has proudly described herself as “the most unabashedly progressive candidate in the field.”

But she has struggled to establish roots in the community that could rival those of her top opponents — Biss and Fine — who have lived in the district for decades and both served in the state Legislature. Abughazaleh moved to the district after launching her campaign and lacks many local endorsements.

She has, however, outraised her opponents in the tight race to succeed Schakowsky, according to DDHQ.

How do progressives fare in crowded contests? 

The Illinois primaries offer one of the best shots for progressives to make inroads in Democratic-favored districts this cycle, with the five House seats up for grabs.

Kelly’s seat in the 2nd Congressional District went for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 by 33 points, according to The Downballot. Schakowsky’s 9th Congressional District backed Harris by 37 points. While Harris won Krishnamoorthi’s district by a slimmer 7-point margin, the congressman won his reelection that year by double digits. 

Illinois state Sen. Robert Peters (D) is considered the progressive favorite in the race to succeed Kelly, whose biggest opponents include Jackson and Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, who reportedly shares donors with those of the pro-Israel AIPAC. 

In the race for Krishnamoorthi’s seat, tech businessman Junaid Ahmed, who’s endorsed by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison, who’s backed by Schakowsky and Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), are seen as the strongest progressive challengers to Bean. Hanover Park Trustee Yasmeen Bankole is backed by Durbin in the 8th District race.

Progressive groups and lawmakers have also waded into the race to replace Schakowsky, backing either Biss or Abughazaleh. 

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