The essential ingredients for a winning Democratic midterm message

President Trump’s personality and performance are the essential foundation of a winning Democratic midterm message. But a strong foundation always needs an attractive house on top to make a big sale.

The president won’t be on the ballot, but his dark presence lurks in the hearts and minds of voters. A new national tracking poll conducted last week for The Economist by YouGov.com tells the tale. The rest of this commentary is for mature audiences only!

Trump’s issue job ratings sleep with the fish. The pollster asked respondents whether they trusted Trump “a lot,” “a little” or “not at all” on more than 20 issues. He didn’t even come close on any of these issues to being within spitting distance of a majority of people who trusted him a lot.

The most prominent issue priority in this and other national surveys is inflation. A majority of people (54 percent) don’t trust the president’s handling of the economy at all. Only three out of ten (28 percent) trust him a lot and one-fifth (18 percent) trust him “a little.” Since Americans vote their pocketbooks, this is devastating news for Trump.

The past is prelude to the present. Election Day exit polls from 2024 indicate that Trump and Republicans in general capitalized on voter concerns about the economy to win. Democrats can win the same way in 2026 because the economic train has already left the station for the GOP.

If you think Trump’s job ratings are bad, just wait until you see his personal scores. Two out of every three people believe that the term “arrogant” describes him “a lot.” Arrogance goes along with the territory at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., so let’s give him a pass on that item. But a majority of Americans also believe the phrases “reckless”, “dishonest” and “corrupt” describe him to a T. This data should serve as a red alert for any Republican running for reelection this November.

Most Americans believe Trump is corrupt and dishonest but it’s vital to distinguish between the two descriptions. The meaning of “corrupt” is obvious, and the public is aware of the billions of dollars that the Trump and his family have accumulated during his presidency. “Dishonest” has a completely different connotation to Americans. The term is a polite way of them saying he’s a liar.

Job ratings alone don’t make for an effective anti-Trump message. There must be a personal element in the construction plan for a new home to make it comfortable to live in. Strong partisans are extremely issue oriented but independents and weak partisans are personality driven. Most Americans vote for people not issues.   

So, the best argument against Trump and Republican congressional candidates this fall is that Trump promised to reduce prices “starting on day one” of his second term. More than a year later, the cost of unleaded gasoline is up almost 100 percent and most grocery prices are up — ground beef and orange juice, in particular, have soared.

It would be nice if we could skate through the midterms simply on an anti-Trump and anti-Republican crusade, but voters demand more. The good news is that Democrats lead the generic head-to-head in national surveys. The bad news is there is a big gap between the magnitude of Trump’s negatives and the size of the Democratic lead.

Democrats must provide an alternative. The best way to fully take advantage of Trump’s negatives is to demonstrate that their party, unlike the president, keeps its promises.

We should remind voters that, over a century, our party promised we would take care of the people and their families. Democrats fought through hell and high water for decades and kept that promise with vital programs such as Medicare, Social Security, the Affordable Care Act and the Civil Rights Act. These are all laws that Trump and his congressional cronies are trying to undo. Democrats delivered on their pledges, which is a lot more than you can say for Trump and his extremist reactionary gang that can’t shoot straight.

Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications. He writes weekly for The Hill and hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.

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