For Democrats, control of the Senate now in play

“This may be the most important election in our lifetime.” We say that every two or four years, but this year it looks more true than ever. Because the 2026 midterms are the first opportunity to put the brakes on Donald Trump.

True, Trump’s not on the ballot in 2026. But he will be the central player in every House and Senate race. The midterms are, in effect, a referendum on the first year of Trump’s second term. And Democrats will be making the case that only by regaining control of Congress can they clip Trump’s wings before he sends the military into any more cities, drives the price of gas and groceries any higher, assassinates any more foreign leaders, or starts another war.

Most political analysts agree that Democrats have a good chance of winning back the House. With Republicans today holding a slim 218-214 majority in the House, Democrats have to flip only three seats to regain control. The odds historically favor the opposition party in midterm elections, but Republicans are further hobbled by resignations of 34 members and the failure of Trump’s redistricting plan to give Republicans as many new seats as they’d hoped.

The online betting site Kalshi, in fact, gives Democrats an 83 percent chance of taking the House, while giving Republicans 17 percent chance.

The Senate is a different story. With Republicans now holding a 53 to 47 majority, Democrats have to flip four seats to regain control. Until now, that has........

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