Trump is ready to oust another communist dictator in Latin America
Trump is ready to oust another communist dictator in Latin America
For the first time in 67 years, the Cuban dictatorship is on its knees. Bilateral talks have been announced, release of political prisoners, commercial opening to Cuban-American citizens and even the arrival of the FBI. The peace through strength policy could also oust the current communist leader without using a single bullet.
Cuba has managed to outwit the international community for decades. Presidents Carter, Clinton and Obama tried to negotiate with the regime but always were deceived. With Trump there is no plan B. Real change is the only proposal on the table.
In 1977, President Jimmy Carter sought dialogue with Fidel Castro, eliminated some travel restrictions and established Interest Sections between both countries. The Cuban regime continued to repress and send mercenaries to Africa and Central America to export its communist revolution.
Castro mocked Carter’s goodwill. The dictatorship opened the prisons, sending some political prisoners to the United States, but above all common criminals, the mentally ill and spies. Some 125,000 people arrived in the exodus known as the Mariel boatlift.
President Bill Clinton and his dialogue with Castro’s regime did not have a happy ending either. In 1993, the new U.S. administration promoted a pragmatic approach, open to concessions and negotiations with the regime. The dictatorship responded by shooting down two aircraft belonging to the Cuban American Brothers to the Rescue. A crime without punishment.
Clinton was contradictory with Cuba. He signed the Helms Burton Act and reinforced sanctions but later made the sending of remittances more flexible and opened an immigration dialogue that established the Wet Foot Dry Foot policy. The dictatorship continued to repress and murder as usual.
President Clinton also made trade with Castro’s regime more flexible, including food, medicine and even humanitarian donations. Castro, for his part, clung to power with brutal repression and an iron fist.
President Barack Obama gave everything to Cuba in exchange for very little, almost nothing. Embassies were opened in both countries and he traveled to Havana to shake hands with the authoritarian Raúl Castro. The tyrant mocked him in his face and said, before the entire press, that there was not a single political prisoner on the island.
Under Obama, the regime received all kinds of commercial, cultural and political concessions and yet they continued to repress and imprison its people. During those years, opposition leaders Oswaldo Payá and Harold Cepero were killed. The island’s government said it was an accident.
The arrival of President Trump and Secretary Marco Rubio changes everything. For the first time, it is clear: it can be a friendly or forced takeover. The talks with the regime revolve around these changes. Nothing else.
“Cuba needs to change. It needs to change and it doesn’t have to change all at once. It doesn’t have to change from one day to the next. Everyone is mature and realistic here” said Rubio.
The communist leadership wants transaction, not transition. In Cuba there cannot be an agreement similar to that of Venezuela, because the dictatorship has nothing to offer. All that remains is a peaceful and prompt transition. With democracy and without half-baked measures.
Miguel Díaz Canel admitted last Friday that there are conversations with the United States to resolve bilateral differences. A report from the New York Times highlights that in these negotiations led by Raul Castro’s grandson, Raul Rodriguez Castro, known as the Crab, the departure of Diaz Canel has been addressed.
The crisis and negotiations in Cuba have made it clear that Raul Castro’s grandchildren and relatives have a central role in decision-making on the island. That the revolutionary model has failed and has been incapable of providing answers to the basic needs of its citizens.
While it is true that dictatorships do not fall overnight, the legislative elections in the United States could put a stop to many of these efforts to dismantle the regime. Even now there are voices in Congress that sympathize with Cuba and are crying out for a softer approach to the regime.
The capture of Nicolas Maduro in January and talks for real change in Cuba in March are reinforcing U.S. leadership inside and outside of Latin America. The Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine has managed to weaken China’s presence in Venezuela and now in Cuba. Things are changing. America’s leadership is back.
Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the National Defense University’s Security and Defense Seminar and the Harvard Leadership course.
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