Anti-incumbent mood sweeping country in troubling sign for GOP majorities

A sour, anti-incumbent mood is sweeping across the nation on its 250th anniversary in what political analysts say is an especially troubling sign for Republican control of the House and Senate, given President Trump’s slumping approval rating.

Rising voter anger with the status quo has hit both parties, with eight House incumbents — five Democrats and three Republicans — losing primary races this year in addition to two GOP Senate incumbents, Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.) and John Cornyn (Texas).

Republicans on Capitol Hill fear the antiestablishment mood could cost them control of the House and perhaps the Senate as well.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott (S.C.) has warned Senate GOP colleagues privately “about how bad polling is, currently, for Republicans and how bad the president is losing ground among all groups,” said a senior Republican aide.

Senate Republican Conference Chair Tom Cotton (Ark.) also shared polling with Senate Republicans at a recent lunch meeting that showed independents moving in large numbers away from the GOP and toward Democrats, according to a GOP senator who attended the presentation.

Whit Ayres, a prominent Republican pollster, warned that Trump’s slumping approval rating is a red flag for Republican prospects, citing political trends over recent decades.

“We know that the party in power tends to lose House seats in a midterm election, but the number of seats lost is highly correlated with the president’s popularity. When presidential job approval is above 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 14. When it’s below 50 percent, the average loss of House seats for his party is 32,” he said.

Ayres said there is “a lot of variation around those numbers” and that with “extreme redistricting,” mid-decade redistricting and growing polarization among voters, GOP losses may be limited.

“But there are very few people at this point who are predicting that the Democrats will not gain seats in the House,” he added.

Republicans hold 218 House seats while Democrats hold 212. There is one independent and four vacancies in the lower chamber.

Trump’s approval rating stands around 40 percent and his disapproval rating is about 57 percent, according to an average of recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics.

Lawmakers in Washington are watching with apprehension as voters unleash their frustrations over the economy and the general direction of the country on incumbents in both parties.

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