OTTAWA—Political parties face two critical tasks going into an election. One is ensuring that your base maintains sufficient enthusiasm to show up on election day. The other is expanding your voter coalition enough to grow your seat count. Even if all of the precursors to success are in place—like a war chest brimming with cash, and a cross-country team of volunteers energized to get out the vote—it can solve the first challenge, but not necessarily the second.

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