Pauline Hanson was caught off guard when the then Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced a snap election back in October 2017.

Riding high in the opinion polls, the One Nation leader was travelling overseas while Palaszczuk got the jump on her rivals by announcing the poll months ahead of expectations.

As one veteran of Queensland campaigns remembers it, the major parties feared voters were sleepwalking into handing One Nation the balance of power in the state parliament. The hype would have seen Hanson locked in as a powerbroker in Queensland politics, even while serving in the Senate in Canberra.

Then Pauline flew home.

Things quickly went to custard for One Nation, as many of the party’s candidates were revealed to have disqualifying features and the leader struggled under the scrutiny of the campaign glare. Not all publicity is good publicity after all.

Despite polling north of 20% and driving a “battler bus” around the state, One Nation won just one seat. While securing 13% of the vote, it emerged with fewer MPs than Bob Katter’s party, and went on to lose half that vote the next time around.

This clash of expectations and reality remains instructive for politics today.

As the party’s support in national polls climbs, Hanson’s ability to win big at the next election is far from assured. Sober analysis of the party’s prospects are warranted, even when the firebrand senator’s influence appears to be soaring.

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Once described by strategist Lynton Crosby as “the accidental tourist of Australian politics”, Hanson........

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