Just before he got himself into trouble with an offhand comment about Grace Tame this week, Anthony Albanese was remarkably frank about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.

Towards the end of an event in Melbourne on Tuesday, the prime minister was asked to give one word answers about a list of personalities appearing in the news. When Sam Weir, the editor of the Herald Sun, raised the former Prince Andrew, Albanese called him a “grub”.

Even a few weeks ago, such a blunt statement about the brother of King Charles would be unthinkable from the cautious and deferential Albanese. So complete has been Andrew’s downfall, due to his close friendship with the paedophile sex trafficker and financier Jeffrey Epstein, barely anyone blinked.

But despite the moral morass that is the Epstein scandal reaching the top of the royal family, the saga has so far failed to spark any serious reassessment of Australia’s ties to the British crown.

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Why is it that even allegations of self-dealing, abuse of office and sexual abuse of vulnerable women and girls can’t shake our self-respecting nation out of decades of constitutional complacency?

Like so many of the big questions facing the country today, the answer comes down to a lack of ambition and imagination.

Seeking to shake off days of reporting about IS-linked Australians returning from Syria, Albanese was quick out of the blocks this week offering support to the British government for removing Mountbatten-Windsor from the royal line of succession. Stripped of all his titles and honours and kicked out of plush, taxpayer-funded digs, the onetime Duke of York remains eighth in line to the throne.

His arrest on suspicion of misconduct in public office looks set to prompt action in the British parliament and across the 14 Commonwealth countries where King Charles is head of state. The move is necessary, despite there being zero real-world chance Mountbatten-Windsor could ever become king.

Even Buckingham Palace has signalled it would not stand in the way of such a change, showing that after years of turning a blind eye to his problematic friendships and business activities, Charles, and William, likely Australia’s next king, understand the existential threat the Epstein scandal represents to the institution.

When Guardian Australia asked Albanese last week whether Andrew’s arrest should renew debate about a republic in Australia, the prime minister restated his view that a referendum would be too difficult. Albanese is a republican and remains in favour of an Australian head of state, but offered praise for Charles and his wife, Queen Camilla.

The failed Indigenous voice to parliament vote in October 2023 remains one of the toughest political lows for Albanese and his four-year-old government, and another big constitutional debate would be a hard sell with voters right now. Learning the lessons of that campaign, setting up a carefully designed republic model and explaining it all to voters would be essential.

Equally, there are urgent priorities facing Labor. The government is struggling to deal with inflation, has a difficult federal budget coming in May and wants to push back on the rise of cynical populist politics, including from Pauline Hanson. Even Labor’s president, Wayne Swan, has warned the party’s ongoing success isn’t guaranteed, but says Albanese “shouldn’t be afraid” of engaging in ambitious and contentious policy debates.

Charles’s efforts to modernise and streamline the monarchy appear to be about ensuring long-term sustainability after his own reign ends, even amid the split with the self-exiled Prince Harry. Judging from the public reaction to Charles’s Australia tour, there seems to be genuine affection for him here.

But the late Queen Elizabeth and Charles have known for years about Andrew’s involvement with Epstein, including credible allegations made by Virginia Giuffre, who claimed she was trafficked by Epstein to Mountbatten-Windsor, and raped by him when she was 16 and 17. The success of Giuffre’s memoir is inspiring, ensuring she can speak to this moment even after dying by suicide in Western Australia last year.

Mountbatten-Windsor denies all the allegations against him.

Giuffre brought a civil case in 2021, which Mountbatten-Windsor settled out of court. King Charles has denied contributing to Giuffre’s settlement deal with his brother – estimated to have been worth as much as A$20m. But the king reportedly expressed reservations when his brother was being considered for appointment as a UK trade ambassador, and likely knows a lot of the commentary about how Andrew has conducted himself over years in public life. A video clip from a 60 Minutes interview with a former security officer in 2022 has gone viral this week. The nickname given to the then prince by those charged with his protection is too crude to repeat here.

Albanese’s assessment that a referendum would be too difficult is a shame. For years Australians were told to expect another debate about a republic after Queen Elizabeth died, and Albanese initially had a junior ministry position for advancing the republic as part of his first term on the frontbench. Now consigning any new debate to failure forgets that a republican prime minister leading a progressive government could go out and make the case, fighting to bring the country with him.

The former Labor leader Bill Shorten showed one pathway back in 2017. He proposed a general plebiscite question about whether Australia should become a republic, followed by a referendum which would incorporate a model if Labor won a second term. The plan was designed to build momentum and maximise the chances of a yes vote.

One risk for King Charles, and his subjects in Australia, is that the ongoing investigations or further releases of Epstein documents reveal senior royals knew more than they let on about Mountbatten-Windsor’s awful behaviour. The royal PR machine will be working in overdrive to ensure Charles and William stay on the right side of the controversy. Both have issued statements offering support to the police investigations and the victims of Epstein’s crimes.

It will fall to a future Labor prime minister to show the political courage for starting a new debate about an Australian republic.

Just what standing the royal family have left by then is anyone’s guess.

Tom McIlroy is Guardian Australia’s political editor

© The Guardian