Donald Trump has found a new way to promise victory over Iran. After months of war have failed to force Iran’s capitulation or collapse, his administration has unveiled what the US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, calls Operation Economic Outcast: an effort to cut it off from what remains of the global economy and threaten foreign governments, banks and companies with sanctions if they continue doing business with Tehran.

There is no question that Iran is vulnerable. Its economy has been battered by years of sanctions, war and a months-long US naval blockade. Iranian officials acknowledge that oil exports and access to foreign currency have been severely constrained. Ordinary Iranians are already enduring high inflation, currency depreciation and worsening living standards. Further economic strangulation will inflict significant additional hardship.

Iran also wants an end to the war. Its president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said it should seek peace while it can still negotiate from a position of “power and dignity”. But Iran needing a deal is not the same as Iran preparing to surrender. That distinction has repeatedly eluded Trump in formulating his Iran policy: ramping up pressure is not the same as having a strategy. Iran gets a move too.

Indeed, Iranian officials increasingly suggest this strategy has the opposite effect than what was intended. Each successive escalation, in their telling, demonstrates why........

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