There is an orange cloud in the sky. I’m not referring to the wildfires ravaging parts of Europe and East Anglia, though they are connected. I mean the looming pall from across the Atlantic that threatens to spoil the sunny start to the premiership of Andy Burnham – and whose name is Donald Trump.

Burnham’s first 10 days or so in office have gone about as well as he or any of his team could have dared hope. His net approval rating has risen by 17 points, according to one early poll, gaining ground with every category of voter except supporters of Reform UK, though they too like some of what they see. His easy manner, no-notes speech-making and agility on social media have won plaudits, including from a usually sceptical press.

But the new prime minister will know that all this could be upended at a stroke, with a single move by the man in the White House. Keir Starmer watched as the earliest green shoots of economic growth emerged earlier this year, only to be crushed by Trump’s decision to combine with Israel and attack Iran. What can Burnham do to ensure he does not suffer that same fate? As it happens, the answer to that question answers another: what might constitute a Burnham foreign policy that would match the spirit and ethos of the agenda he has set out at home?

So far most of the discussion in this area has concentrated on how the new PM should handle his counterpart in Washington. Some suggest his best bet is to emulate Starmer: swallow your pride, ladle on the flattery, avoid overt confrontation. Maybe tickle Trump’s tummy by promising to drill in the North Sea, even as Suffolk is engulfed in the flames of the climate breakdown. Others say the US president is a bully who only respects strength: therefore, stand up to him, even if that means a row.

All this owes more to the realm of animal psychology than political analysis. Different world leaders have tried both approaches – nice guy and tough guy – and both have failed. And sometimes succeeded. Trump........

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