Donald Trump is not a big believer in alliances or the mutuality principle. Life for him is a zero-sum game of winners and losers. That’s the thinking behind his tariff and security policies, as well as his latest outbursts at allies including Australia for not helping in the war.

He has lashed out at allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific because he was frustrated by the course of the war. He never intended for allies and partners to be co-opted so did not brief them or formally request assistance. He thought America and Israel could go it alone – likely because he did not want the headache of having to coordinate operations with coalition partners for the perceived marginal benefit of their contributions.

The call for partners to reopen the strait of Hormuz is not realistic in war-like conditions without the military backing of the US. It would be highly fraught and require boots on the ground in the face of Iranian resistance. Most countries, predictably, would prefer to pay the toll being exacted by the Iranians. But a strait controlled by Iran for the longer term will not look like a US victory to the rest of the world.

The global order is now in the rearview mirror. Some hope for a restoration of the status quo or we can shift gears and look at how the world is and act accordingly. There is no turning back. Even under a Trump successor, domestic politics will dictate how many current policies remain in place.

We must plan for a world where Australia is more self-reliant in economics, defence and security and has more options because it has built strong partnerships with like-minded democracies across the globe. But it cannot afford to throw the baby out with the bath water. The American system of alliances remains fundamental to the security of the Indo-Pacific, including America. We need them and they need us.

In debating the reliability of the US as an ally, the paradigm is more clearly transactional than ever. Just as we did with the critical minerals deal that was the centrepiece of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit, appealing to mutual benefit is the key to unlocking US commitment. The Trump administration is committed to the Asia pivot because of its own interests; a dominant China in east Asia is not in their interest. We need to keep smoothing the process of engagement. Staying the course on joint initiatives such as Aukus, the force posture activities in northern Australia, building on our decades of intelligence cooperation, will all assist.

We need to keep smoothing the process of engagement

One of the reasons to keep engaging with US policy on the Indo-Pacific is that Trump is not a China hawk, unlike many Republicans and members of the Congress. His main interests are trade with China and winning the tech race. He is more ambivalent on geopolitical concerns such as the fate of Taiwan. He discounts that Xi would invade Taiwan on his watch, but the Chinese are pushing to isolate Taiwan from the US by encouraging the US to adopt less accommodating language, moving from support for a peaceful resolution of the issue to calling for peaceful reunification.

The challenge here is to keep reminding the US that what happens to Taiwan has regional ramifications. China will be better able to project power outside the first island chain; it will spook the neighbourhood and weaken the US position in the region. In extremis, Japan may reconsider the use of nuclear weapons if it believes that the US deterrent is no longer viable. South Korea might follow, with North Korea next door as an added incentive.

There is a view that Trump’s Iran incursion and his “victory” in Venezuela are part of a strategy to control global oil, particularly at the expense of China. This is like a mirror image of China’s rare earths strategy. If so, this is at best a tactical and not strategic ploy. China has an all-of-the-above energy policy to increase its energy independence, which will only be accelerated by the Iran episode. The best way to deter China from seeking to dominate the region is through the alliance system to create asymmetric advantage.

The other challenge is to convince Trump that the axis of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is real and works against America’s interests. This is a systemic issue which Trump may not be comfortable in addressing given his transactions-based approach. That is one area that allies and partners can be more vocal in calling out.

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US and minister for industry, innovation and science. He is chair of the United States Studies Centre

Arthur Sinodinos is a former Australian ambassador to the US and minister for industry, innovation and science. He is chair of the United States Studies Centre

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