Despite the bright start to Andy Burnham’s premiership, and Reform UK’s sudden disarray, a shadow still hangs over British centre-left politics. Labour has a small poll lead, a cautious air of confidence and a leader who seems energised rather than overwhelmed by trying to solve the country’s problems. Meanwhile, Reform is having a terrible 2026: mired in deepening funding scandals, losing winnable byelections and, thanks to the drama and novelty of Burnham’s leadership coup and new government, no longer the freshest story around.

Yet Reform UK’s support has either held up or fallen only slightly in most polls since Burnham entered Downing Street. Even in the Makerfield byelection, where he beat it more decisively than expected, Reform’s vote share and total support actually rose. Nigel Farage may have spent the year uncharacteristically avoiding journalists, or in his prickly rather than jolly public mode, but the overwhelming majority of Reform supporters, almost a quarter of the electorate, remain faithful. “Power is within our grasp!” insisted Zia Yusuf, Reform’s home affairs spokesman, at its party conference in Birmingham on Friday, and they applauded with determined gusto.

Meanwhile, their preoccupations continue to shape politics and how the media processes it. Immigration, crime, the benefits system, “wokeness”, net zero policies: all are constantly presented as out of control and contributing to national decline. From our overcrowded prisons to our almost exhausted North Sea oil- and gasfields, what are widely considered to be the most politically realistic options for the government are generally what most Reform voters would like to happen. The likelihood that permanent crime crackdowns and further large-scale fossil-fuel drilling – which the........

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