Chris Doyle

The first round of the latest series of talks between the US and Iran appears to have progressed in Oman. Further negotiations are slated for this week. Hope lingers.

The prize is huge. An Iran that no longer pursues a nuclear path would be a major victory for nuclear disarmament at a time when Russia and the US no longer have any nuclear arms treaties binding them.

Failure looks as if it would trigger war in the form of US military strikes. President Donald Trump has the military capabilities assembled in the region.

War is always risky. War never has many certainties. Trump knows full well that kicking off a war is far easier than ending one. War may happen soon by design but also as a result of a flashpoint, a misunderstanding between sides where trust is extinct.

What would be bombed? What would be the objective and would it be in any way achievable? It is unlikely Trump would sanction strikes to achieve regime change, as he knows this does not tend to happen. But an epidemic of wishful thinking still infects the thinking of too many external fly-by-night observers.

Degrading Iran’s capabilities is conceivable — for example, a decapitation strike. But this is not simple and, as with any strikes, civilian casualties could mount up.........

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