As U.S. and Iranian delegations begin the first round of direct talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad, the process opens under visible strain. The two-week ceasefire is holding, but Israeli strikes in Lebanon have already tested it, tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, and both sides remain far apart on core demands. The fighting has paused, but the drivers of the conflict remain intact.

Pakistan did not bring both sides to the table through routine diplomacy. In the final hours before the ceasefire, it combined pressure and reassurance with precision. After Iranian-linked strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure, Islamabad conveyed that further escalation—especially against Saudi targets would narrow Pakistan’s neutrality and risk drawing it into a wider conflict.

At the same time, it avoided joining coercive diplomatic moves against Tehran and kept political space open by framing Israel as a parallel escalatory factor. That balance helped shape Iran’s decision to accept a pause without appearing to concede.

Pakistan then had to prevent the ceasefire from collapsing almost immediately. Israel’s large-scale strikes in Lebanon—over 100 targets hit within minutes and more than 300 killed reopened the dispute over whether Lebanon was covered by the ceasefire framework. Tehran treated it as part of the understanding; Washington and Israel did not. Islamabad engaged Washington directly to contain the fallout while maintaining contact with Tehran to prevent a response that could have unravelled the process.

The result was limited Israeli restraint and the opening of a parallel Lebanon track. The issue, however, remains unresolved. Israel has since resumed strikes in southern Lebanon at a lower intensity than in the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire, but sufficient to keep the risk of escalation alive.

This underlines why the ceasefire was not a low-cost outcome for Pakistan. Islamabad effectively staked its position on both sides. It warned Tehran that escalation beyond a certain point, particularly through attacks on Saudi infrastructure, would trigger consequences Pakistan could not ignore. At the same time, it pressed Washington to restrain Israel at a critical moment.

Had the ceasefire collapsed, Pakistan would have faced a widening regional conflict, pressure on its Saudi commitments, and immediate economic fallout through energy disruption. That is why Islamabad is now invested not just in hosting the talks, but in ensuring they hold.

The structure of the talks reflects the stakes. As reported, the U.S. side is led by Vice President JD Vance, supported by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iran is represented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and his deputy. Pakistan’s civil-military leadership will be in the........

© The Friday Times