Earlier this month, as drone and ballistic missile strikes hit deep into Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif announced that the newly-minted Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (MJDA) could become operational if the kingdom’s borders were continuously violated. Pakistan’s military spokesman followed suit, proclaiming that Islamabad would “go to any extent” to defend its close ally. 

These were and are empty words but they begot a response from Ansar Allah. In a televised address marking twelve years since they seized the capital, Sana’a, Ansar Allah leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi issued a direct warning to Pakistan and Türkiye against becoming mercenaries in the conflict for political or financial gains. Another senior Ansar Allah official, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, went further and threatened to strike both nations with an “iron fist" if they intervened.

For decades, Pakistan has routinely issued sweeping guarantees of security to the House of Saud to keep its (Pakistan’s) financial lifelines open and secure remittances from its labour in the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia. That’s because this country’s extractive elites just can’t stop lining their pockets but that’s a different debate. Meanwhile, the situation in the region is undergoing multiple changes and is at an inflection point. To think it’s business as usual is sheer foolhardiness. It is important, in fact, crucial, that policymakers in Pakistan whether in mufti or khaki, appreciate the situation rather than situating the appreciation. What follows here is a primer on Yemen, a country with a formidable geography and intractable history. 

I penned a piece in this space on the MJDA in August so I shall not go into that discussion again. But to put the current analysis in perspective, let me reiterate that the collective-defence clause in MJDA remains the real problem. When Riyadh put together a coalition in 2015 to fight Ansar Allah, we did the right thing by placing the issue of support before the parliament, which, sensibly, decided against it. Riyadh was not happy but you can’t make everyone happy all the time.

The basic point, before I get to the Yemen primer, is simple: entering the military conflict in Yemen directly would be an egregious strategic folly. The statements make no sense because a red line that cannot be enforced must never be drawn. That is basic strategy, as basic as basic can get. Pakistan does not have the economic stamina or the domestic stability or even the military projection capabilities to sustain an expeditionary war against Ansar Allah who have proven to be an asymmetrical powerhouse against much stronger adversaries. Now to the historical, geographic, and sociopolitical quicksand of Yemen, a country that makes Afghanistan’s notorious chaos look like a teddy bear’s picnic, which is a good references given we can’t even handle Afghanistan.

Historically, Yemen has never truly been a monolithically united country. Its topography, defined by the jagged, impregnable Sarawat Mountains in the north, Harazi subrange, western and central highlands, eastern plateaus and unforgiving deserts and Kahboub mountain range near the Bab el-Mandab Strait, makes it a nightmare for military operations.

The geography, over millennia, has divided its peoples into fiercely independent tribal........

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