Shall Israel resort to using nuclear weapons over Iran, as US forces find themselves unable to open the Strait of Hormuz? That is the paramount question – one that now overshadows all others as the war on Iran enters day 19.

The closure of the Strait has jeopardised the world economy, particularly that of Europe, along with the aura of US hegemony and the dream of Greater Israel, simultaneously. There appears to be a consensus among American defence analysts that the US does not have the power to make this happen. Its military is not as strong as it was during the Gulf War of 1991. Its NATO allies have plainly refused to be part of a war they are not responsible for starting and barely support.

But here’s the catch.

The rising cost of fuel hurts Europeans more than anyone else. They stopped buying Russian oil after the Ukraine war began – a self-inflicted injury under the pretext of saving US-installed Zelenskyy in Kyiv, who was hell-bent on bringing his country into NATO. Ironically, the alliance’s own future is shrouded in uncertainty. The US, on the other hand, benefits from higher oil prices, as these invest in hard-to-drill Venezuelan oil, viable at about $80–90 a barrel, with prices having jumped from a pre-war $57 per barrel to over $100.

As energy costs rise while the Strait remains closed, countries like India and others turn to Russia for their oil needs, which now sells at a premium price, hurting the Ukrainian cause. Higher oil prices might also push domestic users to purchase more solar electricity systems and EVs, which China is ready to provide........

© The Friday Times