Popular political histories typically reduce multi-layered events down to single dimensions - flat rationales that sit easily in the public mind.

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Gough Whitlam lasted only three years because he tried to do "too much", not because an entitled opposition and biased media considered an elected Labor government illegitimate.

John Howard's dozen-year stint is attributed to his unique virtue as a "conviction politician" despite the standard political contrivances and capitulations. Tony Abbott's prime ministership was effectively cooked with his first budget.

To be fair, this last one is pretty close because despite his personal qualities, Abbott's "broken promises" budget signalled that he would conduct government as he had conducted opposition - combatively.

As the British historian Philip Ziegler said of claims that the Treaty of Versailles made WWII inevitable, "like all generalisations, this is a gross over-simplification and needs to be infinitely qualified; like most generalisations it contains a disconcerting measure of truth".

In that mottled light, it may seem reasonable to assert that if the Albanese government becomes the first "oncer" in nearly a century, its demise traces back to the very instant of its victory.

By committing to the Voice referendum in his election night speech, Anthony Albanese had supplied the narrative spine of his prime ministership, and perhaps his epitaph. The Voice's subsequent rejection breathed viability into Peter Dutton's unlikely candidacy while relieving the new PM of some certainty and prestige.

Yet all first-term governments make errors, and nearly all lose votes when seeking re-election. Howard is lauded as a masterful political leader, but he bled ministers in his first term and lost the popular vote when seeking........

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