The Pulse | Security | South Asia

Why Pakistan Is Desperate to Avert an Iran-Saudi Confrontation

Under a bilateral defense agreement, Islamabad will have to support Riyadh in the event of an Iran-Saudi showdown. That is not in Pakistan’s interest.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after they signed a historic defense cooperation agreement in Riyadh, Sep.17, 2025.

After more than three weeks of sustained Israeli-U.S. military attacks against Iran, the situation in West Asia has entered its most dangerous phase in decades, with no clear end in sight to the ongoing conflict. The conflict has virtually pushed the region to the edge of all-out war, with fears looming large that states from outside West Asia might be drawn into the hostilities.

In the wake of Israel-U.S. attacks on Iran, Tehran has increased its retaliatory attacks on the Gulf Cooperation Council states, particularly Saudi Arabia, creating concerns of a direct military confrontation between the two countries.

On March 18, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud delivered a stark public warning to Iran. Speaking after Iranian attacks on his country and neighboring Gulf states, he declared that tolerance was reaching its limit.

“The patience that is being exhibited is not unlimited,” he said. “Do they [the Iranians] have a day, two, a week? I’m not going to telegraph that.” He urged Tehran to “recalculate” its strategy immediately and reminded listeners that Saudi Arabia and its neighbors possess “very significant capacities and capabilities” if forced to respond.

Amid this situation, Pakistan has emerged as one of the few actors still talking to both Iran and Saudi Arabia while both sides are nearly on the brink of a direct war. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Army Chief General Asim Munir have made repeated visits to Riyadh in recent days, while parallel diplomatic efforts and conversations continue to press the Iranian leadership to avoid actions that could draw GCC and Saudi Arabia into a direct conflict.

In this volatile situation, Pakistan finds itself in a very precarious position. Sandwiched between its allies, Saudi Arabia and Iran, with whom it shares deep historical, religious, and cultural ties, Islamabad has little choice but to multiply its diplomatic efforts to avert a direct crisis between the two sides.

Pakistan’s goal is arguably twofold: first, the country has to shield itself from being dragged into a war that is not of its making; and second, it must dissuade Iran from actions that might provoke a military response from Saudi Arabia or other GCC members. Any such retaliation could potentially activate the recently signed Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and pull Pakistani forces into the fray. This is an outcome that Islamabad is desperate to avoid.

Until recently, the defense agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia felt largely symbolic; while West Asia had known tensions, nothing was expected on the scale that is unfolding now in the region.

In recent days, as Iranian missile and drone attacks grow against the GCC and Saudi Arabia, the pact is seemingly inching closer to the idea of an operational phase. No one can yet say what form that would take, but the trajectory of events is becoming very concerning from Pakistan’s perspective. For instance, each new Iranian strike on........

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