The Pulse | Diplomacy | South Asia

Pakistan Ups the Ante on Indus Water Dispute With India

There is growing eagerness in Pakistan to involve China, the other upper riparian country, more directly in the issue.

The Indus river flowing through Kalabagh, the site of a proposed dam, in Pakistan’s Punjab province, May 27, 2018.

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, which the World Bank brokered between India and Pakistan, was a notable achievement in South Asian diplomacy. The treaty divided the six rivers of the Indus basin between the two countries. The three western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, were allocated to Pakistan, while the three eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, went to India. India was also permitted limited non-consumptive use of the western rivers, primarily for hydropower, but the treaty explicitly prohibited any changes to water flows that could undermine Pakistan’s access to its share of water. For decades, this framework helped in managing a vital shared resource amid persistent rivalry between the two countries.

Last year, however, India decided to hold the treaty in abeyance following a terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, that killed 26 people. New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the incident without presenting convincing evidence. Pakistan formally denied the allegations and has called for a neutral and independent investigation.

India has ramped up infrastructure development on the western rivers since May 2025. This includes fast-tracking bids for new projects, such as the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel and the expansion of the Ranbir Canal. India has also stopped sharing hydrological data for the western rivers with Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters.

These infrastructure changes are coupled with aggressive rhetoric from Indian officials, who claim that “not a single drop of water will flow to Pakistan.” Consequently, these projects have created a sense of political and strategic urgency in Islamabad. Pakistani policymakers now increasingly view these moves as part of a broader Indian strategy to weaponize water and exert pressure on Pakistan.

The Pakistan government recently organized a seminar in Islamabad that brought together civilian leaders, climate experts, and civil-military officials to discuss the growing threat from India’s weaponization of the Indus waters. The discussions focused on protecting Pakistan’s water rights under the treaty and exploring legal and diplomatic avenues to counter India’s actions. Participants broadly emphasized that Pakistan’s rights are legally protected under the IWT and the country is obligated to enforce the treaty mechanisms to defend its share of water at all costs.

Its long-standing defensive posture in this regard appears to have recently evolved into explicit signaling that military force is an option it will take recourse to if India’s water diversions jeopardize the country’s survival. Addressing the severity of the situation, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif recently emphasized that Pakistan would not hesitate to go to war if its water security is breached.

This sentiment was mirrored by Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari during his address at the Islamabad seminar. Highlighting the need for a robust defense framework, he explicitly tied the water crisis to national military preparedness. “The strangulation of water is an existential threat… It is only rational to ask what are we doing in terms of military preparedness as India continues to pursue such measures,” he cautioned.

Pakistan’s military leadership has backed the civilian government’s red lines by signaling its own institutional readiness to act. On July 6, following a Corps Commanders Conference chaired by General Asim Munir, the military top brass issued a formal declaration supporting the water treaty. “The Forum, taking note of Indian rhetoric surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), reaffirmed the guidance given in the National Security Committee (NSC) directive of 24 April 2025. The Forum expressed resolute commitment to undertake all measures necessary to ensure availability of Pakistan’s rightful share of water as per the directives of the Government and inspirations of the people of Pakistan,” it said.

Pakistan has long opposed Indian projects on the western rivers as it views many of them as violating the IWT. Last month, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar criticized 17 such Indian initiatives, including hydropower facilities, as “tools for hydro-hegemony.”

It seems that for Pakistan, the core issue extends beyond individual hydropower projects. The deeper concern lies in the prospect of accumulated upstream control, which India could exercise without the treaty’s disciplinary constraints. As Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters Syed Muhammad........

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