ASEAN Beat | Diplomacy | Southeast Asia

Will Indonesia’s New Foreign Minister Be Allowed to Do His Job?

Arrmanatha Nasir is highly qualified, but his success may hinge on whether or not he has access to President Prabowo Subianto.

The Pancasila Building, part of the headquarters of the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Jakarta, Indonesia.

On October 1, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto finally replaced Sugiono, who had served as foreign minister for the past two years, with the veteran diplomat Arrmanatha Nasir. While one may welcome the appointment of a seasoned diplomat as foreign minister, it is unclear whether he will have enough power and presidential access to steer Indonesia’s foreign policy back to a steadier, more familiar course, as under previous administrations.

As the first foreign minister in decades without substantial foreign policy experience, Sugiono’s tenure was marked by consequential decisions that broke foreign policy precedent. During his time at the helm of the Foreign Ministry, Indonesia endorsed a joint statement with China that appeared to depart from its long-standing refusal to recognize its overlapping claim with China near the Natuna Islands, potentially lending credence to China’s illegal nine-dash line claim. Additionally, it joined both BRICS and U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, and signed the unequal Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with Washington, despite this having dubious benefits to Indonesia. Internally, Indonesian diplomats made anonymous complaints to Indonesian media regarding the chaotic Foreign Ministry workflow and being left in the dark about vital foreign policy decisions that were deliberated within Prabowo’s inner circle.

In this context, Nasir’s appointment comes as a breath of fresh air. In contrast to the inexperienced Sugiono, Nasir has 29 years of experience as a Foreign Ministry insider who has filled two ambassadorial-level postings and served a five-year stint as the Ministry’s spokesperson, among other roles. Therefore, the Foreign Ministry has returned to its decades-long tradition of having career diplomats at its helm. More importantly, during his tenure as Sugiono’s vice foreign minister, Nasir was responsible for the Ministry’s internal dynamics, suggesting he should have had direct knowledge of discontent among the Ministry’s diplomats and staff. Thus, under his tenure, diplomats’ involvement in technocratic deliberations on important foreign policy matters could be improved.

While there is no doubt about Nasir’s ability to steer Indonesia’s foreign policy in the coming years, it is less clear whether he will be given the necessary opportunities and access to do so. Reports in the Indonesian news magazine Tempo indicate that access to President Prabowo, even for ministers, is very limited and heavily curated by members of his inner circle at the presidential palace, thus handicapping close coordination between the president and his cabinet members across a wide range of governmental affairs.

Foreign policy is not immune to this, and at least three major foreign policy decisions under Sugiono’s tenure were made without properly following the Foreign Ministry’s recommendations. In the lead-up to the 2024 Sino-Indonesian joint........

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