The Debate | Opinion | Southeast Asia

Philippine Energy Security Could Determine the Outcome of a Taiwan Contingency

Any Sino-American conflict would place enormous pressure on fuel supplies. U.S. fuel dependence turns Manila’s energy fragility into a strategic vulnerability.

A U.S. Marine assigned to I Marine Expeditionary Force transports a fuel hose during a specialized fueling operation in support of Exercise Balikatan 2026 at Cagayan North International Airport, Lal-lo, Philippines, Apr. 25, 2026.

In March, a U.S. ally declared a “state of energy emergency” after experiencing disruptions to its crude deliveries. After gaining a waiver from Washington, Petron, the Philippines’ only refinery, bought Russian oil. The episode exposed a decades-old vulnerability in U.S. strategy: Philippine fuel insecurity.

Beginning in 2010, across three Pacific tours, I’ve watched China erode regional security through its increased power and aggression. For the United States to deter China from a Taiwan annexation attempt, it requires access to the Philippines and its oil. However, a conflict that draws in the U.S. will likely disrupt the Philippine oil imports that sustain American operations.

The Philippines sits at the Pacific’s crossroads, in the middle of the First Island Chain, connecting Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Philippines’ placement makes it vital to U.S. deterrence. Economically, this region carries 43 percent of global crude shipments and 21 percent of trade. Geographically, control of the Luzon Strait would allow China to isolate Taiwan.

For 20 years, Chinese coercion has revealed Beijing’s desire to control these crossroads, annex Taiwan, and dominate the Pacific. To deter China and sustain American operations 6,500 miles from California, the U.S. needs reliable access to the Philippines and its oil. Yet Manila’s small, nearly import-only oil industry leaves it and U.S. forces vulnerable.

During my last tour in the Pacific, then-Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. China’s response, and its subsequent isolation “rehearsals,” demonstrated its power and aggression. Several isolation zones extended across the Luzon Strait, and, based on recent events, Beijing intends to contest Philippine sovereignty in these areas.

Luzon is critical to deterring “a conflict over Taiwan” and safeguarding global shipping routes, because it’s within ground-based missile range of Taiwan. For China to annex Taiwan, it must control the Luzon Strait to blockade Taiwan, threaten Philippine sovereignty, and degrade U.S. intervention. However, if the United States can maintain reliable access, it can resupply Taiwan and deny a Chinese annexation operation.

But geography is only one part of the equation. Operations from Luzon depend on reliable Philippine oil. American fuel dependence turns Manila’s energy fragility into a strategic vulnerability.

In 2022, the U.S. Department of Defense required over 73 million barrels for operations, training, and exercises globally, with 48 percent purchased overseas. Unsurprisingly, air and maritime operations account for 91 percent of demand, roughly 66.5 million barrels. Any Sino-American conflict would place enormous pressure on fuel........

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