Flashpoints | Security | South Asia

Weaning India Away From Russia? Take a Leaf from the French Playbook

If weaning India away from Russia is a European dream, it is perhaps being led by France.

On February 17, even as he lauded the step forward in Indo-French relations, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ironically appeared to borrow from the Sino-Pakistani platitudes used for decades to describe their all-weather friendship. 

“The India- France partnership knows no boundaries. It can reach from the deepest oceans to the tallest mountains,” he said, in a joint press statement with French President Emmanuel Macron. The present uncertain geopolitics, driven primarily by India’s complex neighborhood, growing Chinese clout, and quixotic policies of American President Donald Trump, is boosting the defense and strategic relationship between New Delhi and Paris. 

During what was Macron’s fourth official visit to India, February 17-19, the two countries exchanged 21 agreements and documents related to the fields of artificial intelligence, defense cooperation, energy, and critical technology, giving shape to an elevated “special global strategic partnership.” Although yet to be officially confirmed as well as finalized through technical and commercial negotiations, the negotiations appear already to be producing movement. 

India is going ahead with its planned purchase of 114 Rafale jets, valued at around $40 billion, for its air force. The unconfirmed loss of one or more Rafale jets during the brief war with Pakistan in May 2025 hasn’t deterred India from placing its trust in the aircraft, built by the French company Dassault Aviation. The Rafale has been integrated into the fighting units of several countries, but none in South Asia – though it may be noted that on February 23, Colombia, in a dramatic reversal, announced that it would bypass a Rafale deal that at one point seemed all but certain in favor of Saab and its JAS 39 Gripen fighter. In any case, the Indian agreement is more than ten times larger than the deal that was under discussion with Colombia. 

The key to New Delhi’s demand is the joint production of at least 90 jets in India itself. Production of Rafales at the Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited (DRAL) facility in Nagpur, in India’s Maharashtra state, is set to become the cornerstone of India’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, a key requirement to bolster its depleted fighter strength and to counter the growing air capabilities of China and Pakistan. MRFA is a critical requirement for the Indian Air Force (IAF), which has been delayed continually for the last two decades. In fact, as far back as the early 1980s, when the Soviet Union agreed to make India the first recipient of the MiG-29 outside the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, New Delhi has struggled unsuccessfully to negotiate the intricacies of high-performance aircraft design and production. The deal with Dassault is also in alignment with India’s self-reliance goals (Atmanirbharta) and enhances local industry participation in defense production. DRAL, set up in 2017, is a joint venture between the Indian Reliance Aerostructure Limited and France’s Dassault. 

Hard negotiations are yet to begin on technology transfer. While the French have agreed to the joint production, reports have indicated that they are still unwilling to transfer the critical source codes for the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite and other core electronic systems. Similar tough negotiations also characterized Indian desires to upgrade the MiG-29 through the development of its own aerospace industry. In the case at hand, French restrictions will deny India the ability to independently integrate certain sensors and weapons, or customize Rafale’s software, without France’s approval and support. 

Mutual interests of these two middle powers — in particular the quest to play a larger geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific — are driving the relationship and therefore the two sides may yet find a way to overcome this hiccup. The French may offer application programming interfaces (APIs) as a middle ground instead of the full source code, the arrangement they entered with the United Arab Emirates, which ordered 80 Rafale jets in 2021. The same arrangement might allow India to integrate its own systems without seeing the underlying proprietary logic. 

The French defense industry is heavily dependent on deals with India, which has emerged as its largest and most crucial export market. The sheer volume of Indian orders makes it indispensable to the profitability and sustainability of the French defense industry. From a relatively minor supplier, France has become India’s second-largest defense partner over the past decade, second only to Russia. Roughly 50 percent of France’s arms exports by volume were to India. Between 2019 and 2023, New Delhi accounted for nearly 30 percent to 33 percent of all French arms exports, firmly placing India as the top destination for French military hardware. Not surprisingly, Indian strategic experts point, in the same breath, to the uncertain West (primarily meaning the U.S.) compared to the French steadfastness. 

France accounted for nearly 80 percent of India’s ship imports during 2019-2024, a visibly sharp increase from around 16 percent in 2013-2018, and negligible levels prior to that, thereby highlighting New Delhi’s growing dependence on French naval technology. This, of course, is a stunning reversal from the same 1980s period noted above, when not only did Soviet designs dominate the Indian fleet but Moscow even went so far as to lease a nuclear submarine to New Delhi, which served as the basis for the foundational knowledge that led to India’s nuclear submarine fleet. 

Thus, if weaning India away from Russia is a European dream, it is perhaps being led by France, with Germany as a newly emerging player. Although Macron offered to sell more submarines to India, New Delhi may have made up its mind to go with a deal with Germany’s ThyssenKrup Marine Systems (TKMS) to build six advanced, conventional diesel-electric attack submarines, trying to maintain its balancing act and its policy of multi-alignment. 

However, the project of separating the decades-old India-Russia defense jointness is not be easy. Reports suggest that the IAF is considering the purchase of approximately 36 to 40 Sukhoi Su-57M1E stealth fighters from Russia, valued at $9 billion, as an interim solution for fifth-generation aircraft. Moscow has reportedly offered comprehensive technology transfer for the Sukhoi jets. While India aims to modernize its combat fleet through a multi-vector strategy that avoids reliance on a single country for its defense needs, it appears willing to diversify and explore opportunities with all nations that are open to transferring advanced technology. In this context, France’s eagerness to engage could prove to be a crucial strategic move.

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On February 17, even as he lauded the step forward in Indo-French relations, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi ironically appeared to borrow from the Sino-Pakistani platitudes used for decades to describe their all-weather friendship. 

“The India- France partnership knows no boundaries. It can reach from the deepest oceans to the tallest mountains,” he said, in a joint press statement with French President Emmanuel Macron. The present uncertain geopolitics, driven primarily by India’s complex neighborhood, growing Chinese clout, and quixotic policies of American President Donald Trump, is boosting the defense and strategic relationship between New Delhi and Paris. 

During what was Macron’s fourth official visit to India, February 17-19, the two countries exchanged 21 agreements and documents related to the fields of artificial intelligence, defense cooperation, energy, and critical technology, giving shape to an elevated “special global strategic partnership.” Although yet to be officially confirmed as well as finalized through technical and commercial negotiations, the negotiations appear already to be producing movement. 

India is going ahead with its planned purchase of 114 Rafale jets, valued at around $40 billion, for its air force. The unconfirmed loss of one or more Rafale jets during the brief war with Pakistan in May 2025 hasn’t deterred India from placing its trust in the aircraft, built by the French company Dassault Aviation. The Rafale has been integrated into the fighting units of several countries, but none in South Asia – though it may be noted that on February 23, Colombia, in a dramatic reversal, announced that it would bypass a Rafale deal that at one point seemed all but certain in favor of Saab and its JAS 39 Gripen fighter. In any case, the Indian agreement is more than ten times larger than the deal that was under discussion with Colombia. 

The key to New Delhi’s demand is the joint production of at least 90 jets in India itself. Production of Rafales at the Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited (DRAL) facility in Nagpur, in India’s Maharashtra state, is set to become the cornerstone of India’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, a key requirement to bolster its depleted fighter strength and to counter the growing air capabilities of China and Pakistan. MRFA is a critical requirement for the Indian Air Force (IAF), which has been delayed continually for the last two decades. In fact, as far back as the early 1980s, when the Soviet Union agreed to make India the first recipient of the MiG-29 outside the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, New Delhi has struggled unsuccessfully to negotiate the intricacies of high-performance aircraft design and production. The deal with Dassault is also in alignment with India’s self-reliance goals (Atmanirbharta) and enhances local industry participation in defense production. DRAL, set up in 2017, is a joint venture between the Indian Reliance Aerostructure Limited and France’s Dassault. 

Hard negotiations are yet to begin on technology transfer. While the French have agreed to the joint production, reports have indicated that they are still unwilling to transfer the critical source codes for the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite and other core electronic systems. Similar tough negotiations also characterized Indian desires to upgrade the MiG-29 through the development of its own aerospace industry. In the case at hand, French restrictions will deny India the ability to independently integrate certain sensors and weapons, or customize Rafale’s software, without France’s approval and support. 

Mutual interests of these two middle powers — in particular the quest to play a larger geopolitical role in the Indo-Pacific — are driving the relationship and therefore the two sides may yet find a way to overcome this hiccup. The French may offer application programming interfaces (APIs) as a middle ground instead of the full source code, the arrangement they entered with the United Arab Emirates, which ordered 80 Rafale jets in 2021. The same arrangement might allow India to integrate its own systems without seeing the underlying proprietary logic. 

The French defense industry is heavily dependent on deals with India, which has emerged as its largest and most crucial export market. The sheer volume of Indian orders makes it indispensable to the profitability and sustainability of the French defense industry. From a relatively minor supplier, France has become India’s second-largest defense partner over the past decade, second only to Russia. Roughly 50 percent of France’s arms exports by volume were to India. Between 2019 and 2023, New Delhi accounted for nearly 30 percent to 33 percent of all French arms exports, firmly placing India as the top destination for French military hardware. Not surprisingly, Indian strategic experts point, in the same breath, to the uncertain West (primarily meaning the U.S.) compared to the French steadfastness. 

France accounted for nearly 80 percent of India’s ship imports during 2019-2024, a visibly sharp increase from around 16 percent in 2013-2018, and negligible levels prior to that, thereby highlighting New Delhi’s growing dependence on French naval technology. This, of course, is a stunning reversal from the same 1980s period noted above, when not only did Soviet designs dominate the Indian fleet but Moscow even went so far as to lease a nuclear submarine to New Delhi, which served as the basis for the foundational knowledge that led to India’s nuclear submarine fleet. 

Thus, if weaning India away from Russia is a European dream, it is perhaps being led by France, with Germany as a newly emerging player. Although Macron offered to sell more submarines to India, New Delhi may have made up its mind to go with a deal with Germany’s ThyssenKrup Marine Systems (TKMS) to build six advanced, conventional diesel-electric attack submarines, trying to maintain its balancing act and its policy of multi-alignment. 

However, the project of separating the decades-old India-Russia defense jointness is not be easy. Reports suggest that the IAF is considering the purchase of approximately 36 to 40 Sukhoi Su-57M1E stealth fighters from Russia, valued at $9 billion, as an interim solution for fifth-generation aircraft. Moscow has reportedly offered comprehensive technology transfer for the Sukhoi jets. While India aims to modernize its combat fleet through a multi-vector strategy that avoids reliance on a single country for its defense needs, it appears willing to diversify and explore opportunities with all nations that are open to transferring advanced technology. In this context, France’s eagerness to engage could prove to be a crucial strategic move.

Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

Dr. Shanthie Mariet D’Souza is the founder & president, Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies (MISS), a senior research fellow, University of Massachusetts Amherst and visiting faculty at the Naval War College, Goa, India.

India military modernization priorities

India-France defense relations

India-France relations

India-Russia relations

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