China Power | Diplomacy | East Asia

4 Fault Lines that Could Shape the Trump-Xi Summit

The tangible outcomes will be modest, but the stakes are high.

U.S. President Donald Trump participates in a welcome ceremony with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, May 14, 2026.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet next week at the White House in Washington, D.C., provided that the “conditionalities” attached to the summit are met. This will be the second leaders’ summit between Trump and Xi this year, following the U.S. president’s visit to Beijing in May. 

This will be Xi’s first visit to the U.S. capital in a decade, after he met then-U.S. President Barack Obama in 2016. Back then, the agenda centered on the much-touted issues of cyberespionage and commercial hacking. Today, there are new concerns. 

Both domestically and internationally, this visit is taking place amid considerable friction. On the domestic front, the United States will be holding midterm elections roughly 40 days after the visit. This makes the timing an unusual choice, as noted by Pew Research: many Americans still view the Chinese leader unfavorably, despite a 6-percentage-point rise since last year. Presidents generally avoid such risks to optics as midterms near. 

At the international level, the world is still living under the shadow of the Iran-U.S. war. Consequently, Brent crude is trading around $100 per barrel. At the same time, the China-Russia alignment has deepened; a few months ago – just after the last Trump-Xi summit, in fact – Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their close partnership and signed a joint statement to deepen their strategic partnership. Beijing is underwriting Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine as Washington prepares to welcome Xi. 

Meanwhile, Pew Research noted in another survey that Beijing is viewed favorably in more countries than Washington, adding another nuance to the global attention focused on the summit.

However, one must note that Beijing has yet to officially confirm the meeting, even though the United States has given the date of September 24. Some reports even suggested that the meeting will be canceled by Beijing if Washington gives approval for a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. 

Therefore, the coming week will tell us much about the relationship between China and the United States.

Real Stakes Amid Low Expectations

Even assuming the meeting does go ahead as planned, there are low expectations for what will be achieved. The consensus holds that the tangible outcomes will be modest, possibly just an extension of what was achieved at the last summit held in China. There are four topics of particular interest at the Trump-Xi summit.

First is the tariff question. At the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025, Washington and Beijing agreed to a one-year truce in their trade war. The United States reduced its fentanyl-related tariff on Chinese goods to 10 percent. The U.S. also suspended a 10 percent reciprocal tariff and secured a commitment from Beijing to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans every year through 2028. China also deferred export controls on rare earths. But this truce will expire in November this year. 

The upcoming Trump-Xi meeting will build on these arrangements rather than introduce something entirely novel. Already, the rare earth element in the deal is quite fragile. Some reports have suggested that exports of yttrium – a rare earth element used in the aerospace and defense industries – to the United States have declined sharply after April 2025, despite China’s commitment to waive export controls. Some U.S. officials and analysts have discussed imposing new tariffs and charges on certain Chinese goods. This could be used as leverage in negotiations before the meeting. 

The second focal point is Iran. The ceasefire in the Middle East has collapsed multiple times, a recurring feature of Trump’s foreign policy. Just over a week ago, Iran retaliated against the U.S. strikes on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and hit Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq. 

China is currently Iran’s largest trading partner and the top buyer of its oil, and Washington has declared economic war on Iran. In practice, as Iran is already heavily sanctioned, the new U.S. Treasury Department campaign – dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast” – involves pressuring those who “enabled” Iran’s actions. 

Trump mentioned speaking directly to Xi over this and asking him not to get involved. In May, both China and the United States agreed that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon, but this small point of agreement is being overshadowed........

© The Diplomat