Crossroads Asia | Environment | Central Asia

Uzbekistan Wants Nuclear Energy, But Can It Afford the Water Cost?

The country is betting on nuclear power to secure its energy future – but it is doing so in one of the most water-stressed regions in the world.

The Uzbek government’s plan to build a nuclear power plant (NPP) in the Jizzakh region, alongside the creation of a centralized radioactive waste system, marks a decisive shift toward long-term nuclear infrastructure. Officials have presented the project, implemented in partnership with Russia and under the oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency, as a rational response to rising electricity demand and necessary to further economic growth.

Yet beneath this explanation lies a difficult question: can a water-intensive energy system, which nuclear power is, be sustained in a region where water demand already exceeds supply?

According to a United Nations report, water demand in Uzbekistan exceeds supply by 23 percent and overall water stress has reached 123 percent – a sign that scarcity is no longer a future risk, but a present reality.

A Strategic Response – or a Strategic Bet?

Uzbekistan’s turn to nuclear energy reflects mounting structural pressures. Electricity demand across Central Asia is projected to grow by around 40 percent by 2030, requiring at least 62.8 gigawatts of new capacity.

Political analyst Elyor Usmanov frames the NPP project as a structural response to a widening energy gap, driven by industrial growth, population expansion, and the declining flexibility of gas-based generation.

The project also promises measurable gains. Official estimates suggest the NPP could supply up to 15 percent of Uzbekistan’s electricity while saving roughly 3.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually.

But nuclear energy is not a short-term solution. It is a long-term commitment. Infrastructure of this scale operates for decades, embedding financial and technological dependence. As Usmanov notes, such projects act as a “long-term anchor” – economic, technological, and political.

This dependence is already taking shape. Agreements linked to Uzbekistan’s nuclear program are valued at up to $24.7 billion, underscoring both the scale of investment and the depth of long-term commitments. 

The government has approved the creation of a national radioactive waste management center, responsible for transporting, processing, and storing radioactive materials over the long term. The project also includes infrastructure upgrades and the development of specialized laboratories between 2026 and 2027.

As Andrey Ozharovsky, a nuclear physicist and co-founder of the public program Radioactive Waste Safety notes, radioactive materials remain hazardous for decades – and in some cases centuries – requiring continuous monitoring and stable institutional capacity.

In this sense, nuclear energy extends far beyond electricity generation, creating a long-term obligation to manage risk across generations.

A Region Under Pressure

These developments are unfolding in a region already under severe water stress.

Across Central Asia, water availability per capita has declined from around 8,400 cubic meters to approximately 2,500, and could fall to 1,700 by 2030 – a threshold associated with chronic scarcity.

At the same time, inefficiencies compound the problem: up to 40 percent of water is lost through outdated irrigation systems, while agriculture consumes roughly 80 percent of available resources.

Climate change is intensifying these pressures. Under high warming scenarios, up to 80 percent of the region’s glaciers could disappear, further reducing already limited water supplies.

At the same time, experts increasingly note that the region’s water crisis is not just by scarcity, but also by inefficiencies in management, outdated infrastructure, and the lack of coordinated regional governance. 

Nuclear energy introduces a structural tension into this already fragile system. Nuclear power plants require substantial volumes of water for cooling. Globally, they rank among the most water-intensive forms of energy generation.

This raises a broader question: are large-scale infrastructure decisions are being fully aligned with long-term resource constraints? 

Location is critical. Uzbekistan’s planned nuclear site lies near the Aydar-Arnasay lake system, including Lake Tuzkan, a hydrologically sensitive area.

Water expert Bulat Yessekin notes that such a facility could........

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