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The Security Imperative of India’s Clean Energy Transition

India’s energy security hinges on breaking its dependence on fossil fuels.

The 1973 oil crisis was a wake-up call for the U.S., triggering a fundamental rethink of its energy security strategy. In many ways, the present Gulf crisis has exposed the fragility of India’s dependence on fossil fuel imports. India’s energy security can no longer be achieved through diversification alone and must instead be built on a faster, more resilient clean energy transition.

Despite efforts to diversify its energy imports, India remains heavily dependent on the Middle East. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted India’s energy supplies, with nearly 50 percent of its crude oil and over 60 percent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports transiting the waterway.

India has taken measures to mitigate the fallout from this crisis, but these have come at a cost. Reallocation of fuel for priority sectors such as household and transport at the start of the crisis has meant reduced supplies for India’s petrochemical industries and commercial users. India’s restaurant industry, for one, is estimated to incur monthly losses of around $8.5 billion due to the shortage of commercial LPG cylinders. The relaxation of regulations to permit the use of alternative fuels such as biomass, coal, and kerosene is likely to drive up carbon emissions, exacerbating hazardous air quality levels.

The energy shock has created tangible economic pressures as well. Russian crude cargoes already at sea are now being bought at a premium of $5-$15 a barrel. The rupee has hit all-time lows and India’s growth forecasts have suffered, with Goldman Sachs trimming its FY27 estimate for India’s GDP growth from 6.4 percent to 5.9 percent. Rising inflation may push an estimated 2.5 million Indians into poverty.

The crisis has also underscored a long-standing geopolitical reality for India. Despite its efforts to stay non-aligned, its fossil fuel dependence leaves it exposed to external pressure. After months of curbing Russian oil imports under U.S. pressure, India had to resume purchases, raising questions about the long-term impact on trade ties with Washington. Prime Minister Narendra Modi came under immense domestic pressure as fuel prices rose and the U.S. issued a temporary waiver to “allow” India to purchase Russian oil. After India managed to secure safe transit for some shipments from Iran, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports further exposed the limits of India’s strategic autonomy.

As the world’s third-largest energy consumer, India remains deeply exposed to external shocks, with more than 70 percent of its energy supply still met by fossil fuels. While New Delhi’s case for greater leeway in emissions to meet its development needs was once defensible, the heightened vulnerability of fossil fuel supply chains today calls for an accelerated clean energy transition. 

Fortunately, India is already on the right track. The government has ramped up investments in rapid solar deployment and........

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