Asia Defense | Security

Can Indo-Pacific Powers Deter China Without the US?

The Indo-Pacific is dead; long live the Indo-Pacific.

Last month, the United States changed the name of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to just Pacific Command, a reversal from its 2018 decision. Back in 2018, Washington was continuing its “pivot to Asia” and developing institutional embeddedness in the context of its “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy. This effort was embodied by the Quad, which began on the foreign minister track in 2019 and finally elevated to leader level summits in 2021. 

However, the priorities of the second Trump administration have shifted radically from those of Trump’s first administration, causing rising distrust among Indo-Pacific allies. Against that backdrop, the return to a purely Pacific Command reinforced concerns that the United States is uninterested in the Indo-Pacific. The diminishing of U.S. influence, coupled with China’s economic rise, increases China’s potential to become a regional hegemon. 

But the other regional powers will have a say in future developments, and they have been busy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently wrapping up a three-country tour of Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visited India and Vietnam in April and is in Mongolia at the moment. Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae visited Vietnam, Australia, and South Korea in May, and India in the first week of July. The packed diplomatic calendar is a reminder that we must also consider how these countries are trying to deter China – even without the United States. 

Can these countries, all with significant ties with the United States, collectively deter China themselves, minus U.S. involvement? 

The honest answer is a qualified no. What Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and Indonesia can already do together is deter by denial at sea. These five countries sit astride the First Island Chain, as well as the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits – the sea lanes carrying most of China’s energy imports. Japan is fielding counterstrike missiles on a defense budget reaching 2 percent of GDP. Seoul plans to lift its defense spending from 2.3 to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2035 on top of one of the world’s most productive defense industries. India can keep a large share of Chinese forces pinned on the Himalayan frontier while exporting BrahMos batteries to Jakarta.

What they cannot do, minus the United States, is deter a major war. There is no mutual defense obligation among any of the five, no unified command, no shared war plan, and no substitute for U.S. extended nuclear deterrence over Tokyo and Seoul. South Korea’s forces, in any case, remain fixed on........

© The Diplomat