Interviews | Politics | Central Asia

Aijan Sharshenova on the Japarov-Tashiev Political Divorce in Kyrgyzstan

Put one way, the Japarov-Tashiev split is a “political divorce…  involving high stakes, such as significant assets, complex business structures, or intense custody battles.”

For five years, Kyrgyzstan’s government has been led by the “two friends,” with President Sadyr Japarov and head of the State Committee for National Security Kamchybek Tashiev viewed as a tandem, a “package deal.” But in February the tandem split, with Japarov dismissing his long-tine ally Tashiev while the latter was out of the country.

In the two months since, while Tashiev has returned to Kyrgyzstan and as of publishing remains a free man, the Kyrgyz government has cracked down on Tashiev’s network of friends, family and allies on the back of corruption allegations ironically aired four years ago by the very same media that Tashiev has spent years degrading. 

To help grasp this fast-moving political drama, The Diplomat’s Catherine Putz spoke with Aijan Sharshenova, an independent political analyst, on the current state of Kyrgyz politics.

After five years, the ruling tandem of Sadyr Japarov and Kamchybek Tashiev ended abruptly when Japarov dismissed Tashiev from his post as head of the State Committee for National Security. What do you think triggered this split?

Just as many observers in Kyrgyzstan, I cannot state anything with complete certainty, but I believe this split was inevitable. Kyrgyz political life is highly volatile, complex, multidimensional, and dynamic. It has been quieter in the last four years or so, but the underneath currents have never stopped shifting. Running a country and negotiating sensitive issues between not just two people, but two rapidly growing retinues is almost an impossible task. 

I am genuinely amazed Japarov and Tashiev managed to keep their arrangement for over five years. The split was inevitable. What triggered it was probably the short window of opportunity when Tashiev left the country for a few days.

Both Japarov and Tashiev have enjoyed what appeared, from the outside, to be significant popularity since coming to office. Where do you think their popularity stands now, individually?

Unfortunately, Kyrgyzstan does not have a reliable and longitudinal polling as it would be fascinating to see what people think right now. From the outset, Japarov and Tashiev have presented themselves as a “package deal,” two-for-one kind of arrangement. 

This arrangement has had clearly allocated assigned roles; Tashiev acted as the strongman, a punisher, while Japarov acted as a fatherly, kinder figure. Political myth-making has a lot to say about it, but we probably won’t have sufficient space to dive into this here.

With the tandem split, their popularity has certainly changed in one way or another. My feeling is that public popularity follows those in power, so I guess Japarov is more popular as a winner now. 

Prior to his dismissal, Tashiev insulated himself from criticism and specifically allegations of corruption with the might of the security services. Now that he’s out, those discussions are happening once again in public – driven by state agencies. What does this say about accountability and the rule of law in Kyrgyzstan?

The rule of law has been fragile for a while.........

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