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Home – Political News – Ceuta–Lessons Learned Two Weeks Later

Ceuta–Lessons Learned Two Weeks Later

On July 30 up to 80,000 people crossed illegally from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. They swam or climbed the fence separating the North African country from a territory Spain has claimed since the 15th century. Most were young men. Most were Moroccans, but hundreds came from sub-Saharan Africa.

As many as 100 people died attempting the swim. Many migrants were expelled, but thousands hid in the hills around the town. Some migrants attempted to rob local businesses or homes, vandalized property, or caused disturbances. Local authorities report that several girls, some under 14, were raped in areas where migrants were detained or congregated.

Two weeks later, thousands of illegal migrants remain in Ceuta. Some of them are demanding to be taken to mainland Spain. The immediate crisis is waning but could repeat at any time.

What happens now? For the Daily Signal, immigration expert Simon Hankinson spoke to Spanish expert Juan A. Soto, founder of Fortius Consulting.

Signal: Juan, how many illegal immigrants will likely remain in Ceuta or be taken to the Spanish mainland?

Soto: Nobody knows. Official estimates speak of 2,500; the city’s president, Juan Vivas, says 5,000. Underneath the numbers sit two legally distinct populations. The overwhelming majority is Moroccan nationals, returnable under the 1992 bilateral readmission agreement. Rabat took them back quickly–and that tells you something about who controls the tap.

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The second is the residual: sub-Saharan nationals, who are not easily returnable in practice; asylum claimants, and unaccompanied minors or those presenting as such. Spain’s Supreme Court ruling this summer, which restricts summary returns of people intercepted at sea, together with the obligation to transfer unaccompanied minors out of the enclaves, turns that residual into a permanent transfer to the mainland.

My estimate is that there remains a durable residual somewhere between 3,000 and 5,000 people still in Ceuta, of whom perhaps half will end up permanently in Spanish territory through asylum procedure or simple administrative attrition.

Signal: Many outside observers believe that such a mass movement would not have been possible without Morocco’s tacit or even explicit assistance. However, Spain’s intelligence agencies claim this was not the case. Social........

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