Conservatives looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections are waking up to a harsh new reality: the monolithic Republican coalition that carried President Donald Trump to the White House two years ago no longer exists. Instead, the American Right has fractured into a bitter, three-way civil war: the MAGA Populists, the anti-interventionist “Woke Right,” and the so-called centrist “RINOs” (Republicans In Name Only).

When the Senate voted to end the war, the resolution narrowly failed 49–50, but it exposed catastrophic fault lines. Four Republicans crossed party lines to vote with Democrats, while a lone Democratic defection kept the administration afloat. Even though the measure failed to pass, it signaled that Trump no longer has unified party support on this critical issue.

The first fault line is the widening chasm between the centrist establishment and the populist base. Mainstream Republicans, sensing electoral disaster in swing districts, are sprinting away from the administration’s marquee........

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