The autumn budget looks set to be a cautious affair. It is not expected to spark the kind of Labour party enthusiasm that Andy Burnham has enjoyed in his first three months as prime minister.

In that short time, Burnham has promised not to shy away from tackling the big issues facing the UK, such as social care, weak economic growth and the effects of Brexit. He says he also wants to offer immediate and tangible help to those who are struggling with the cost of living.

But it is not clear how much help his chancellor John Healey can afford to offer. And much of what he can afford will end up being paid for by cuts to spending elsewhere, because the overall economic picture in the UK is so mixed.

The country’s growth forecast, for example, was recently raised by the IMF slightly to 1.3% for next year. This is better than for most G7 countries, but still weak by historic standards.

And the IMF is also predicting higher inflation in the UK, which could lead the Bank of England to raise interest rates,........

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